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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Leading Index MoM fell to 0.8% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Leading Index MoM fell to 0.8% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from February's 1.3% reading. The reading missed the 1.3% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.13%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Index MoM averaged 1.3%, vs 0.87% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.8
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.4
Actual: 0.8
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leading Index MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.5% in June 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.82%, ranging from -3.4% to 2.1% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.87%, down from the prior three at 1.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.1%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.43%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Leading Index MoM has averaged -2.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.56%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Leading Index MoM - JP
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About Leading Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Leading Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the changes in economic activity and predicts future trends. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer confidence, and housing starts, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This indicator is widely used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and anticipate potential shifts in the market. A positive change in the Leading Index MoM suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a potential economic downturn. Overall, the Leading Index MoM is a valuable tool for monitoring and forecasting economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.