Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Leading Index MoM fell to 0.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Leading Index MoM fell to 0.4% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 1.1% from July's 1.5% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.77%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Index MoM averaged 0.72%, vs 0.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 34th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.35
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Leading Index MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.4% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.92%, ranging from 0% to 2.1% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.63%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.48%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Leading Index MoM has averaged 0.75%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Leading Index MoM - JP
Loading chart data...
About Leading Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Leading Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the changes in economic activity and predicts future trends. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer confidence, and housing starts, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This indicator is widely used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and anticipate potential shifts in the market. A positive change in the Leading Index MoM suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a potential economic downturn. Overall, the Leading Index MoM is a valuable tool for monitoring and forecasting economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |