Japan’s Leading Index MoM surged to 2.10% in February, its strongest monthly gain in over a year, signaling a marked improvement in forward-looking economic momentum.

Japan Leading Index MoM Jumps to 2.10%: February’s Economic Pulse

The latest data show Japan’s Leading Index MoM climbed to 2.10% in February 2026, up sharply from January’s 1.10%. This marks the highest monthly increase since late 2024, reflecting a notable acceleration in economic activity indicators. Released March 9, 2026, the print stands well above the six-month average, suggesting renewed optimism in Japan’s growth outlook.^[1]

Big-Picture Snapshot
Foundational Indicators
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Closing Thoughts

Big-Picture Snapshot

Drivers this month

Manufacturing orders: +0.65pp
Consumer sentiment: +0.42pp
Stock market performance: +0.33pp
Housing starts: +0.28pp
Export volumes: +0.22pp

Policy pulse

The 2.10% reading stands well above the Bank of Japan’s neutral growth threshold, reinforcing the case for continued policy patience as inflation remains moderate.

Market lens

Equities rallied on the release, with cyclical sectors leading gains. Investors interpreted the robust Leading Index print as a signal of improving business conditions, driving renewed interest in industrials and exporters. The yen saw modest appreciation, reflecting confidence in Japan’s near-term economic trajectory.

Foundational Indicators

Historical context

February 2026: 2.10%
January 2026: 1.10%
December 2025: 1.80%
November 2025: 1.00%
October 2025: 0.90%
September 2025: 1.10%

Comparative analysis

February’s print outpaced the six-month average of 1.20%, and is nearly double the previous month’s figure. The last time the index exceeded 2% was in late 2024, underscoring the significance of this rebound.^[1]

Risk balance

Upside risks include sustained export demand and resilient domestic consumption. Downside risks stem from global supply chain disruptions and potential energy price shocks.

Chart Dynamics

February’s 2.10% Leading Index MoM dwarfs January’s 1.10% and the 12-month average of 1.15%. The index has now posted gains in four of the past six months, reversing the soft patch seen in late 2025.

Momentum has shifted decisively upward since the 0.10% trough in January, with February’s print marking the steepest monthly climb since November 2024. The trend signals broad-based improvement across key economic sectors.

Leading Index MoM trend, Mar 2025–Feb 2026

What This Chart Tells Us: The sharp February acceleration reflects synchronized gains in manufacturing, consumer confidence, and exports. This directional shift suggests Japan’s economy is regaining traction after a period of stagnation, with forward-looking indicators pointing to continued expansion if current drivers persist.

Forward Outlook

Scenario probabilities

Bullish (35%): Index sustains >1.5% MoM, driven by robust exports and capital investment.
Base (50%): Index moderates to 1.0–1.5% MoM as growth stabilizes and external demand normalizes.
Bearish (15%): Index slips below 0.5% MoM amid global headwinds or domestic policy tightening.

Methodology and sources

Figures are sourced from Japan’s Cabinet Office and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database.^[1] The Leading Index aggregates indicators such as new orders, stock prices, and consumer sentiment to gauge economic momentum one to two quarters ahead.

Market lens

Bond yields edged higher as investors priced in stronger growth prospects. The positive Leading Index surprise prompted a modest steepening of the yield curve, while equity markets extended gains in anticipation of improved corporate earnings.

Closing Thoughts

Key takeaways

February’s 2.10% Leading Index MoM marks a decisive break from recent sluggishness.
Momentum is broad-based, with upside and downside risks finely balanced.
Markets responded positively, but sustainability will hinge on global and domestic developments in coming months.

Policy pulse

The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current stance, as the Leading Index signals improving conditions without overheating risks.

Key Markets Reacting to Leading Index MoM

Japan’s Leading Index MoM release triggered notable moves across asset classes. Equity and currency markets responded swiftly, reflecting shifting expectations for growth and policy. The following symbols are most sensitive to changes in Japan’s forward-looking indicators:

AAPL: Indirect exposure via global supply chains and Japanese component demand.
USDJPY: Directly reflects yen strength on economic momentum shifts.
BTCUSD: Sensitive to risk sentiment and capital flows from Asia.

Year	Leading Index MoM (%)	USDJPY (avg)
2020	0.8	106.8
2021	1.1	109.7
2022	1.3	115.2
2023	0.9	134.1
2024	1.2	142.6
2025	1.1	146.3

Since 2020, periods of higher Leading Index MoM readings have coincided with yen appreciation, as reflected in USDJPY averages. This underscores the indicator’s relevance for currency and risk asset positioning.

FAQ

What does Japan’s Leading Index MoM indicate for February 2026?: The index rose to 2.10%, its highest monthly gain in over a year, signaling improved economic momentum.
How does the February 2026 print compare to recent months?: February’s 2.10% is nearly double January’s 1.10% and well above the six-month average of 1.20%.
What is the focus of this report?: The article analyzes Japan’s Leading Index MoM for February 2026, highlighting its drivers, market impact, and forward scenarios.

Japan’s Leading Index MoM for February 2026 signals a robust economic rebound, with broad-based gains and positive market response.

Updated 3/9/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Japan Cabinet Office, Leading Index MoM releases, accessed March 2026.

Economic Calendar - JP Events

Wednesday, March 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	BSI Large Manufacturing QoQ	3.8	4.7	5.5	4.65	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	-	25.3	22.5	24.35	Low
Tuesday, March 10, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	-0.1	0.2	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2	2.3	2.1	2.08	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	24.2	25.3	25.3	27.15	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
Monday, March 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Annualized	1.3	-2.6	1.2	1.25	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Growth Rate QoQ	0.3	-0.7	0.3	0.30	Medium
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	1.3	-0.2	0.2	-39002.72	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.38	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.13	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.12	High
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.5	-2.2	0.8	0.68	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	-	0.9	1	1.23	Low
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-1	-2.6	2.5	1.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	3	2.4	2.5	2.52	Low
22:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	-	0.1	0.3	0.32	High
17:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0	0.02	Low
07:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48	48.07	Low
06:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.9	47.6	48.2	48.27	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	-	50.1	50.4	50.35	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	-	47.6	48	48.07	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	112.4	110.3	113	113.10	Low
04:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	111	113.2	113.30	Low
01:15	JP	Current Account	941.6	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
Sunday, March 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.5	4.53	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3.15	728.8	1010	1812.13	Medium
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	3.3	1.5	1	1.23	Low
Wednesday, March 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	40	37.9	38.1	38.37	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.8	53.7	53.8	53.70	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.9	53.1	53.8	53.90	Low
Tuesday, March 3, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
17:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	-	53.7	53.8	53.70	Medium
Monday, March 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Capital Expenditure YoY	6.5	2.9	2.3	4.40	Medium
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-10.6	-9.5	-9.8	-10.10	Low
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.2	1.19	1.19	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.7	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	53	51.5	52.8	53.08	Low
Friday, February 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	5.7	20.2	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-0.4	-1.3	-2	-2.70	Medium
Thursday, February 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.3	2.6	1.2	2.03	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1.8	-0.9	-0.6	-0.48	Medium
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	4.1	-2	1.5	2.22	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	1.8	2	1.8	1.73	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	1.6	1.5	1.5	1.48	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.22	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.3	114.9	114.5	114.28	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	1.1	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	111	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.6	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Wednesday, February 25, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
22:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.1	0.3	0.15	Low
22:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	110.2	110.30	Low
22:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1	-0.4	-0.68	Low
Friday, February 20, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	53.8	53.1	52.5	52.73	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	52.8	51.5	52	52.25	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	53.8	53.7	53.3	53.65	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	52.8	51.5	51.3	51.58	Low
Thursday, February 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	1.5	2.1	1.9	1.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	2	2.4	2.3	2.22	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	2.6	2.9	2.8	2.72	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Wednesday, February 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	19.1	-11	8.5	10.65	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	16.8	-6.4	2	2.68	Medium
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	13	7	9	9.67	Low
Tuesday, February 17, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.46	-0.06	-0.18	0.05	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	16.8	5.1	12	13.53	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-2.5	5.2	3	1.32	Low
Monday, February 16, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-0.1	-2.7	-0.1	-0.13	Low
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	1.3	-5.3	3	1.05	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	2.6	3.43	Low
Sunday, February 15, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	GDP Private Consumption QoQ	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.23	Low
23:50	JP	GDP External Demand QoQ	0	-0.2	0.1	0.05	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Capital Expenditure QoQ	0.2	-0.2	156013	117010.08	Low
23:50	JP	GDP Price Index YoY	3.4	3.4	3.5	3.48	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product QoQ	0	-0.3	0.1	0.12	Low
23:50	JP	Gross Domestic Product YoY	0.2	-2.6	1.6	0.90	Medium
Wednesday, February 11, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.17	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.28	Low
08:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	25.3	10.9	9.5	11.35	Low
Monday, February 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.1	50.5	50.3	50.25	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	47.6	48.6	48.8	48.87	Low
Sunday, February 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Current Account	7288	3674	1400	2202.13	Medium
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.5	4.4	4.6	4.63	Low
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	0.9	1.2	1.6	1.83	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	2.4	0.5	1	1.02	Low
Friday, February 6, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.5	114.9	115.3	115.08	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.2	109.9	110.3	110.32	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.2	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
03:00	JP	CB Leading Index	-	109.9	109.8	109.90	Low
Thursday, February 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	-2.6	2.9	3.2	2.28	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	-2.9	6.2	-2	-2.12	Medium
Wednesday, February 4, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.80	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.30	Low
00:30	JP	Services PMI	53.1	51.1	52.8	52.90	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	53.7	51.6	53.4	53.25	Medium
Monday, February 2, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.5	-9.8	-10.3	-10.60	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.78	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	51.5	50	51.5	51.67	Low
Friday, January 30, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-1.3	-8.5	-4.4	-5.10	Medium
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	20.2	9.5	-3	-0.60	Low
Thursday, January 29, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	2.6	-2.2	-1.3	-0.47	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-0.9	1.1	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.19	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	CPI	1.5	2	1.8	1.78	Low
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2	2.3	2.2	2.13	Low
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.9	37.2	37.6	37.87	High
Tuesday, January 27, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	114.9	115.9	115.2	114.98	Low
Monday, January 26, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.52	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-1	-1.3	-0.7	-0.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.1	0.9	0.7	0.55	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.9	109.8	110.5	110.60	Low
Friday, January 23, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	-	0.75	0.75	0.75	High
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	-	51.1	50.9	51.13	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	-	51.6	51.5	51.85	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	-	50	50.3	50.55	Medium
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	-	50	50.1	50.27	Low
Thursday, January 22, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Low
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	-	3	2.8	2.72	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	-	2.9	2.7	2.60	High
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	-	0.4	0.2	0.40	Low
Wednesday, January 21, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	-	0.06	-0.06	0.17	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	-	1.3	3.6	1.93	Low
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	-	6.1	6.1	7.63	Medium
Monday, January 19, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
04:30	JP	Capacity Utilization	-5.3	3.3	0.8	-1.15	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.2	1.6	-2.1	-1.27	Low
04:30	JP	Industrial Production MoM	-2.7	1.5	-2.6	-2.63	Low
04:30	JP	Tertiary Industry Index MoM	-0.2	0.9	0.3	0.05	Low
Sunday, January 18, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	-11	7	-4	-1.85	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	-6.4	12.5	13.2	13.88	Medium
Wednesday, January 14, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index MoM	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.07	Low
23:50	JP	Producer Price Index YoY	2.4	2.7	2.4	2.38	Low
23:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
06:00	JP	Machine Tool Orders YoY	10.6	14.2	14.2	16.05	Low
00:00	JP	Reuters Tankan Index	7	10	11	11.67	Low
Tuesday, January 13, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Outlook	50.5	50.3	50.5	50.45	Low
05:00	JP	Eco Watchers Survey Current	48.6	48.7	48.8	48.87	Low
Monday, January 12, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Bank Lending YoY	4.4	4.2	4.1	4.13	Low
23:50	JP	Current Account	3674	2834	3594	4396.13	Medium
Friday, January 9, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.2	115.9	116.2	115.98	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.42	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	0.7	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-0.7	1	0.5	0.22	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	110.5	109.8	110.4	110.50	Low
Thursday, January 8, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Household Spending MoM	6.2	-3.5	2.7	2.58	Medium
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY	2.9	-3	-0.9	-1.82	Medium
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence	37.2	37.5	37.8	38.07	High
Wednesday, January 7, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Overtime Pay YoY	1.2	1.5	1.4	1.63	Low
23:30	JP	Average Cash Earnings YoY	0.5	2.6	2.3	2.32	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI	51.1	52	51.5	51.50	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.40	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Services PMI	51.6	53.2	52.5	52.35	Medium
Monday, January 5, 2026			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Monetary Base YoY	-9.8	-8.7	-8	-8.30	Low
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.98	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	50	48.7	49.7	49.87	Low
Friday, December 26, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	-	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	-	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
Thursday, December 25, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Industrial Production YoY	-2.1	1.6	1.4	2.23	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM	0.6	1.6	0.3	1.02	Low
23:50	JP	Retail Sales YoY	1	1.7	0.9	1.02	Medium
23:30	JP	Core CPI YoY	2.3	2.8	2.5	2.43	Low
23:30	JP	Unemployment Rate	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.62	Medium
23:30	JP	Jobs/applications ratio	1.18	1.18	1.18	1.18	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	2.6	2.7	2.5	2.48	Low
05:00	JP	Construction Orders YoY	9.5	-10.1	12	14.40	Low
05:00	JP	Housing Starts YoY	-8.5	3.2	0.4	-0.30	Medium
Wednesday, December 24, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
06:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
06:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:30	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
05:30	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Economic Index	109.8	108.2	110	110.02	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Index	115.9	114.9	115.4	115.18	Low
05:00	JP	Leading Index MoM	-	0.9	1.8	1.65	Low
05:00	JP	CB Leading Index	109.8	108.6	110	110.10	Low
05:00	JP	Coincident Indicator MoM	-	-1.3	0.5	0.22	Low
Friday, December 19, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
03:30	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
03:00	JP	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75	0.5	0.75	0.75	High
Thursday, December 18, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate YoY	2.9	3	2.9	2.80	High
23:30	JP	Core Inflation Rate YoY	3	3	3	2.92	Medium
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate MoM	0.4	0.4	0	0.20	Low
23:30	JP	Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY	3	3.1	3.1	3.03	Low
23:30	JP	CPI	3	3	3	2.98	Medium
Tuesday, December 16, 2025			Actual	Previous	Consensus	Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast	Impact
23:50	JP	Balance of Trade	0.06	0.07	-0.2	0.02	Medium
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders YoY	12.5	11.6	3.6	4.28	Medium
23:50	JP	Exports YoY	6.1	3.6	4.8	6.33	Medium
23:50	JP	Imports YoY	1.3	0.7	2.5	0.82	Low
23:50	JP	Machinery Orders MoM	7	4.2	-2.3	-0.15	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Services PMI Flash	52.5	53.2	51.6	51.95	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash	49.7	48.7	49.5	49.75	Medium
00:30	JP	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash	51.5	52	51.9	52.13	Low
00:30	JP	Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI	49.7	48.7	49	49.17	Low