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Data from Bank of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Monetary Base YoY fell to -15.7% in August 2026
Bank of JapanMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Monetary Base YoY fell to -15.7% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.9% from July's -13.8% reading. The reading missed the -13.5% consensus by 2.2%. Monetary Base YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Monetary Base YoY is now the lowest in 163 months.
Latest Release
-15.7
Actual
-13.5
Consensus
-13.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.48 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -13.9
Actual: -15.7
Error: +1.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monetary Base YoY (Japan) was reported at -15.7% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -13.5% by 2.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -13.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.57%, ranging from -15.7% to -6.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -13.9%, down from the prior three at -10.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.71%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.97%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Monetary Base YoY - JP
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About Monetary Base YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Monetary Base YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total amount of money in circulation in a country's economy. It includes physical currency, commercial bank reserves, and other liquid assets held by the central bank. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it reflects the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system. A positive change in the Monetary Base YoY indicates an increase in the money supply, while a negative change may signal a decrease in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -15.7 %, consensus -13.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -13.8 %. Before that (May 2026): -12.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |