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Data from Bank of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Monetary Base YoY climbed to -15.2% in September 2026
Bank of JapanMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Monetary Base YoY climbed to -15.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from August's -15.7% reading. The print exceeded the -16.3% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -10.09%. Over the past 3 months, Monetary Base YoY averaged -14.75%, vs -11.75% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 8th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-15.2
Actual
-16.3
Consensus
-15.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.48 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -17.05
Actual: -15.2
Error: -1.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monetary Base YoY (Japan) was reported at -15.2% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -16.3% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -15.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -11.48%, ranging from -15.7% to -7.9% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -14.9%, down from the prior three at -11.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.58%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.27%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Monetary Base YoY - JP
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About Monetary Base YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Monetary Base YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total amount of money in circulation in a country's economy. It includes physical currency, commercial bank reserves, and other liquid assets held by the central bank. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it reflects the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system. A positive change in the Monetary Base YoY indicates an increase in the money supply, while a negative change may signal a decrease in economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -15.2 %, consensus -16.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -15.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -13.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |