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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Overtime Pay YoY climbed to 4.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Overtime Pay YoY climbed to 4.2% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 1.1% from March's 3.1% reading. The print exceeded the 3.2% consensus by 1.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.86%. Over the past 3 months, Overtime Pay YoY averaged 2.95%, vs 1.2% in the prior 3-month window. Overtime Pay YoY is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.35
Actual: 4.2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.86 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overtime Pay YoY (Japan) was reported at 4.2% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.91%, ranging from 0.6% to 4.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.8%, up from the prior three at 1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.24%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.21%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Overtime Pay YoY has averaged 1.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Overtime Pay YoY - JP
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About Overtime Pay YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Overtime Pay YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of overtime pay received by employees compared to the previous year. This metric is commonly used by businesses to track the growth or decline in overtime expenses and can provide valuable insights into labor costs and workforce management. A positive YoY change in overtime pay may indicate increased demand for labor, while a negative change may suggest improved efficiency and cost-saving measures. Overall, Overtime Pay YoY is a useful tool for monitoring and analyzing the financial impact of overtime work on a company's bottom line.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.2 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bearish AUD, r=-0.86) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.