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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Overtime Pay YoY fell to 3.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Overtime Pay YoY fell to 3.1% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.3% from June's 3.4% reading. The reading missed the 3.9% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.3%. The reading is in the 74th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3.9
Consensus
3.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.88 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.75
Actual: 3.1
Error: +0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Overtime Pay YoY (Japan) was reported at 3.1% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.1%, ranging from 0.6% to 4.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.37%, up from the prior three at 1.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.19%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.3%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Overtime Pay YoY has averaged 2.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.88%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Overtime Pay YoY - JP
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About Overtime Pay YoY — Japan
DEFINITION
Overtime Pay YoY (Year over Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of overtime pay received by employees compared to the previous year. This metric is commonly used by businesses to track the growth or decline in overtime expenses and can provide valuable insights into labor costs and workforce management. A positive YoY change in overtime pay may indicate increased demand for labor, while a negative change may suggest improved efficiency and cost-saving measures. Overall, Overtime Pay YoY is a useful tool for monitoring and analyzing the financial impact of overtime work on a company's bottom line.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.70 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |