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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.2% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.6% from July's 0.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.2%. Producer Price Index MoM has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 0.25%, vs 1.33% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index MoM is now the lowest in 19 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.1
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Japan) was reported at -0.2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.43%, ranging from -0.2% to 2.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 1.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.65%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.24%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep 24) and S&P Global Services PMI (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - JP
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Producer Price Index MoM fell by -0.200000% in September, missing the 0.000000% estimate and down from August's 0.100000%. This marks a clear contraction following two months of minimal growth, signaling easing inflationary pressures at the producer level. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely as the Bank of Japan maintains its accommodative stance. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/JPY (Bearish GBP, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 54.9 | 55 | 55.00 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.5 | 52.7 | 52.70 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | JP | S&P Global Composite PMI | 53.5 | 54 | 54.00 | Low | |