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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Producer Price Index MoM fell to 0.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Producer Price Index MoM fell to 0.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.7% from May's 1.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. Producer Price Index MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 1.6%, vs 0.25% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 74th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.4% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.44%, ranging from -0.2% to 2.3% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.2%, up from the prior three at 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Aug 9) and BoJ Summary of Opinions (Aug 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - JP
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
Japan's Producer Price Index MoM rose 0.40% in July, beating the 0.30% estimate and down from June's 0.90%. July's increase signals a continued moderation in producer price inflation after the sharp 2.3% surge in May. Market focus remains on upcoming inflation data and Bank of Japan policy signals amid easing price pressures. Updated 7/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Friday, August 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Leading Economic Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.45 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Coincident Indicator MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | CB Leading Index | 116.4 | 116.4 | 116.5 | 116.50 | Low |
| Sunday, August 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Current Account | 3968 | 1512 | 1913.50 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.7 | 5.7 | 6.10 | Low | |
| Monday, August 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Outlook | 45.7 | 46 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 05:00 | JP | Eco Watchers Survey Current | 44 | 44.4 | 44.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 06:00 | JP | Machine Tool Orders YoY | 52.8 | 42 | 42.00 | Low | |
| 23:00 | JP | Reuters Tankan Index | 13 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 7.1 | 7.4 | 7.40 | Low | |