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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Reuters Tankan Index climbed to 8 in May 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Reuters Tankan Index climbed to 8 in May 2026, up 1 from April's 7 reading. The reading matched the 8 consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 11.08. Over the past 3 months, Reuters Tankan Index averaged 11.25, vs 9.25 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8
Actual
8
Consensus
7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 10.5
Actual: 8
Error: +2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Bearish Nikkei 225 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Reuters Tankan Index (Japan) was reported at 8.00 in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 8.00 exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 7.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.75, ranging from 6.00 to 18.00 across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.00, up from the prior three at 10.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.83) is comparable than the prior year (σ 4.04). In May readings over the past 3 years, Reuters Tankan Index has averaged 8.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Reuters Tankan Index - JP
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About Reuters Tankan Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Reuters Tankan Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of Japanese businesses. It is based on a quarterly survey of over 500 companies, providing valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the Japanese economy. This index is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can help inform investment decisions and economic policies. With its comprehensive and timely data, the Reuters Tankan Index is a crucial tool for understanding the business climate in Japan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 8, consensus 8. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 7. Before that (Mar 2026): 18.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.