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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Reuters Tankan Index climbed to 21 in September 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Reuters Tankan Index climbed to 21 in September 2026, up 3 from August's 18 reading. The print exceeded the 15 consensus by 6. Reuters Tankan Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Reuters Tankan Index averaged 14.67, vs 10 in the prior 3-month window. Reuters Tankan Index is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
21
Actual
15
Consensus
18
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 16.17
Actual: 21
Error: -4.83
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Reuters Tankan Index (Japan) was reported at 21.00 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15.00 by 6.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 18.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.25, ranging from 7.00 to 21.00 across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.33, up from the prior three at 13.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.32) is comparable than the prior year (σ 4.25). In September readings over the past 3 years, Reuters Tankan Index has averaged 12.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Sep 15) and Balance of Trade (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Reuters Tankan Index - JP
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About Reuters Tankan Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Reuters Tankan Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of Japanese businesses. It is based on a quarterly survey of over 500 companies, providing valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the Japanese economy. This index is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can help inform investment decisions and economic policies. With its comprehensive and timely data, the Reuters Tankan Index is a crucial tool for understanding the business climate in Japan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 21, consensus 15. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 18. Before that (Jul 2026): 13.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 4.1 | -1.3 | -0.40 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Tertiary Industry Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Exports YoY | 23.2 | 18.2 | 18.60 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Balance of Trade | -634.5 | -1052.6 | -959.65 | High | |
| 23:50 | JP | Imports YoY | 27.8 | 26.3 | 26.15 | Low | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | 9.7 | -2.8 | 1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 16.9 | 15.3 | 18.45 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Adjusted Trade Balance | -0.69 | -0.98 | -0.92 | Medium | |