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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Reuters Tankan Index held to 13 in July 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Reuters Tankan Index held to 13 in July 2026. The reading missed the 14 consensus by 1. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.67. Over the past 3 months, Reuters Tankan Index averaged 10.5, vs 11.6 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
13
Actual
14
Consensus
13
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.58
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 15
Actual: 13
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Reuters Tankan Index (Japan) was reported at 13.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.00 by 1.00. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.83, ranging from 7.00 to 18.00 across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.33, down from the prior three at 14.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.36) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.69). In July readings over the past 3 years, Reuters Tankan Index has averaged 10.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.58.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Reuters Tankan Index - JP
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About Reuters Tankan Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Reuters Tankan Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of Japanese businesses. It is based on a quarterly survey of over 500 companies, providing valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the Japanese economy. This index is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can help inform investment decisions and economic policies. With its comprehensive and timely data, the Reuters Tankan Index is a crucial tool for understanding the business climate in Japan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 13, consensus 14. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 13. Before that (May 2026): 8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |