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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index climbed to 17 in January 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index climbed to 17 in January 2026, released March 2026, up 2 from December's 15 reading. The print exceeded the 16 consensus by 1. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is now the highest in 48 months.
Latest Release
17
Actual
16
Consensus
15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 16
Actual: 17
Error: -1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Japan) was reported at 17.00 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.00 by 1.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 15.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 15.33, up from the prior three at 13.00. In March readings over the past 3 years, Tankan Large Manufacturers Index has averaged 13.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoJ Press Conference (Jul 31) and CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Tankan Large Manufacturers Index - JP
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About Tankan Large Manufacturers Index — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index is a key economic indicator that measures the sentiment and outlook of Japan's largest manufacturing companies. It provides valuable insights into the health of the country's manufacturing sector and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts. The index is based on a quarterly survey conducted by the Bank of Japan, making it a reliable and timely measure of the current and future state of Japan's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 17, consensus 16. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 15. Before that (Jul 2025): 14.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |