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Data from Cabinet Office of Japan. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook fell to 14 in January 2026
Cabinet Office of JapanMonthlyReleased March 2026
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook fell to 14 in January 2026, released March 2026, down 1 from December's 15 reading. The print exceeded the 13 consensus by 1. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.5.
Latest Release
14
Actual
13
Consensus
15
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.25
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 13
Actual: 14
Error: -1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish JP | → View |
| GBP/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bullish JPY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Japan) was reported at 14.00 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 13.00 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 15.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.67, up from the prior three at 13.00. In March readings over the past 3 years, Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook has averaged 12.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/JPY, negatively correlated (Bullish JPY). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.25.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook - JP
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About Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook is a highly regarded financial indicator that provides insight into the current and future state of Japan's manufacturing industry. It is based on a survey of large Japanese companies and measures their sentiment and expectations for the coming months. This indicator is closely monitored by investors and policymakers as it can offer valuable insights into the overall health of the Japanese economy. Its results are considered a key factor in decision-making for businesses and financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 14, consensus 13. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 15. Before that (Jul 2025): 12.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish JPY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.