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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to -0.2% in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to -0.2% in March 2026, released May 2026, up 0.5% from February's -0.7% reading. The print exceeded the -0.4% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.25%. Over the past 3 months, Tertiary Industry Index MoM averaged 0.65%, vs 0.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
-0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.29 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Japan) was reported at -0.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.64%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.69%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Tertiary Industry Index MoM has averaged -0.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.29%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Tertiary Industry Index MoM - JP
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About Tertiary Industry Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tertiary Industry Index MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the output of the service sector in a country. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the service industry, which is a major contributor to a country's economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it reflects the current trends and performance of the service sector, which plays a crucial role in driving economic growth. A positive change in the Tertiary Industry Index MoM indicates a strong and expanding service sector, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction in the industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD, r=0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.