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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to 0.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 0.6% from June's -0.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, Tertiary Industry Index MoM averaged 0.45%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.68
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Japan) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.38%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, down from the prior three at 0.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.72%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Tertiary Industry Index MoM has averaged 0.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Machinery Orders MoM (Oct 14) and Machinery Orders YoY (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Tertiary Industry Index MoM - JP
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About Tertiary Industry Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tertiary Industry Index MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the output of the service sector in a country. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the service industry, which is a major contributor to a country's economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it reflects the current trends and performance of the service sector, which plays a crucial role in driving economic growth. A positive change in the Tertiary Industry Index MoM indicates a strong and expanding service sector, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction in the industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.76) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Monday, October 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.10 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.8 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.20 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Bank Lending YoY | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.40 | Low |
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders MoM | -3.7 | 3 | -1.10 | Medium | |
| 23:50 | JP | Machinery Orders YoY | 11.2 | 15.7 | 8.30 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 04:30 | JP | Capacity Utilization | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.20 | Low | |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 6.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.73 | Low |
| 04:30 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.50 | Low | |