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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to 1.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to 1.1% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 0.3% from April's 0.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.4% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.34%. Over the past 3 months, Tertiary Industry Index MoM averaged 0.23%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.65
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Japan) was reported at 1.1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.45%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.73%, up from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.72%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Tertiary Industry Index MoM has averaged 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Jul 31) and BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Tertiary Industry Index MoM - JP
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About Tertiary Industry Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tertiary Industry Index MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the output of the service sector in a country. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the service industry, which is a major contributor to a country's economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it reflects the current trends and performance of the service sector, which plays a crucial role in driving economic growth. A positive change in the Tertiary Industry Index MoM indicates a strong and expanding service sector, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction in the industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 34.9 | 33.8 | 34.2 | 34.55 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Core CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.80 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.17 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | CPI YoY | 2 | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 0.5 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.80 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -4.1 | 1.7 | -0.5 | -2.30 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 4.2 | -2.1 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | 18.6 | 33.9 | 12.8 | 15.70 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | 2.3 | -6.7 | -7 | -2.35 | Low |