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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to 1.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM climbed to 1.3% in April 2026, released June 2026, up 1.9% from March's -0.6% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.8%. Tertiary Industry Index MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Tertiary Industry Index MoM averaged -0.3%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.78
Actual: 1.3
Error: -0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Japan) was reported at 1.3% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.41%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, up from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.67%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.69%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Tertiary Industry Index MoM has averaged 1.18%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monetary Policy Statement (Jun 16) and BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Tertiary Industry Index MoM - JP
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About Tertiary Industry Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tertiary Industry Index MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the output of the service sector in a country. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the service industry, which is a major contributor to a country's economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it reflects the current trends and performance of the service sector, which plays a crucial role in driving economic growth. A positive change in the Tertiary Industry Index MoM indicates a strong and expanding service sector, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction in the industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/JPY (Bullish AUD, r=0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.