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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
JapanJapan Tertiary Industry Index MoM fell to -0.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Japan Tertiary Industry Index MoM fell to -0.1% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.3% from July's 0.2% reading. The print exceeded the -0.4% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, Tertiary Industry Index MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.18
Actual: -0.1
Error: -0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tertiary Industry Index MoM (Japan) was reported at -0.1% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.41%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.7% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.03%, down from the prior three at 0.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.36%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Tertiary Industry Index MoM has averaged -0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC JPY speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Retail Sales YoY (Oct 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Tertiary Industry Index MoM - JP
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About Tertiary Industry Index MoM — Japan
DEFINITION
The Tertiary Industry Index MoM is a key financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in the output of the service sector in a country. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the service industry, which is a major contributor to a country's economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it reflects the current trends and performance of the service sector, which plays a crucial role in driving economic growth. A positive change in the Tertiary Industry Index MoM indicates a strong and expanding service sector, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction in the industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.67) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - JP Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | JP | Consumer Confidence | 35 | 35.4 | 35.1 | 35.05 | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Jobs/applications ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Unemployment Rate | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.45 | Medium |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo CPI YoY | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.05 | Low |
| 23:30 | JP | Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.60 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production MoM | 2.2 | -2.4 | 1.3 | 1.75 | Medium |
| 23:50 | JP | Industrial Production YoY | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.50 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales MoM | -0.7 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -0.05 | Low |
| 23:50 | JP | Retail Sales YoY | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.80 | Medium |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | JP | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | High |
| 05:00 | JP | Housing Starts YoY | -2.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 2.95 | Medium |
| 05:00 | JP | Construction Orders YoY | -11.1 | -3.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low |