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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Balance of Trade climbed to 34.75B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
South Korea Balance of Trade climbed to 34.75B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 4.43B from July's 30.32B reading. The print exceeded the 30.7B consensus by 4.05B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 32 months.
Latest Release
34.75
Actual
30.7
Consensus
30.32
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.41 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 31.06
Actual: 34.75
Error: -3.69
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/KRW | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| KOSPI | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Korea) was reported at 34.75 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 30.70 billion by 4.05 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 30.32 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.92 billion, ranging from 6.00 billion to 34.75 billion across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 30.67 billion, up from the prior three at 18.87 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.15 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.05 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 15.03 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/KRW (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with KOSPI, positively correlated (Bullish KOSPI). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.41 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Sep 22) and Business Confidence (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - KR
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About Balance of Trade — South Korea
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net exporter or importer. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more goods and services than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2013): actual 2,061 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/KRW (Bearish USD, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | KR | Consumer Confidence | 104.5 | 104.8 | 104.60 | Medium | |