Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Balance of Trade climbed to 26.95B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
South Korea Balance of Trade climbed to 26.95B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 3.19B from April's 23.76B reading. The print exceeded the 24.3B consensus by 2.65B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 12.58B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 21.63B, vs 11.66B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
26.95
Actual
24.3
Consensus
23.76
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 25.4
Actual: 26.95
Error: -1.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| USD/KRW | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| KOSPI | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Bullish KOSPI | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Korea) was reported at 26.95 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 24.30 billion by 2.65 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 23.76 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12.20 billion, ranging from 6.00 billion to 26.95 billion across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 22.69 billion, up from the prior three at 12.13 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.51 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.97 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 12.95 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with USD/KRW, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.22 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jun 22) and Business Confidence (Jun 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - KR
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — South Korea
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net exporter or importer. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more goods and services than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2013): actual 2,061 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.