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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Balance of Trade fell to 30.32B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
South Korea Balance of Trade fell to 30.32B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 5.77B from June's 36.09B reading. The reading matched the 29.59B consensus. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 32 months.
Latest Release
30.32
Actual
29.59
Consensus
36.09
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.22 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 30.92
Actual: 30.32
Error: +0.59
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/KRW | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| KOSPI | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (South Korea) was reported at 30.32 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 29.59 billion by 0.73 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 36.09 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.90 billion, ranging from 6.00 billion to 30.32 billion across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 27.67 billion, up from the prior three at 13.20 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.79 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.96 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 13.52 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/KRW (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.22 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - KR
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About Balance of Trade — South Korea
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net exporter or importer. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more goods and services than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic performance.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2013): actual 2,061 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/KRW (Bearish USD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Saturday, August 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 62.8 | 70.7 | 59 | 60.90 | Medium |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 26.5 | 30 | 26.6 | 26.55 | Low |
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 30.32 | 36.09 | 29.59 | 29.95 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.80 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 23:00 | KR | Current Account | 38.61 | 34.7 | 34.70 | Low | |