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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Business Confidence fell to 78.0% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Korea Business Confidence fell to 78.0% in October 2026, down 1.0% from September's 79.0% reading. The reading matched the 79.2% consensus. Business Confidence has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 80.0%, vs 81.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
78
Actual
79.2
Consensus
79
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.58 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 77.45
Actual: 78
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (South Korea) was reported at 78% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 79.2% by 1.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 79%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 75.6%, ranging from 70% to 82% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 79.33%, up from the prior three at 77.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.59%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.53%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 71.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Nov 1) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - KR
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About Business Confidence — South Korea
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 78 %, consensus 79.2 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 79 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 81 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Sunday, November 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 49.97 | 37.24 | 37.61 | Low | |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 26 | 39.9 | 39.85 | Low | |
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 83.7 | 93.2 | 95.10 | Medium | |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 54.2 | 54.50 | Medium | |