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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Business Confidence climbed to 82.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Korea Business Confidence climbed to 82.0% in July 2026, up 4.0% from June's 78.0% reading. The reading matched the 81.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Business Confidence is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
82
Actual
81
Consensus
78
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.71 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 84.5
Actual: 82
Error: +2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| KOSPI | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (South Korea) was reported at 82% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 81% by 1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 78%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 72.6%, ranging from 68% to 82% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 77.67%, up from the prior three at 71.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.41%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.57%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 74.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.71%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Exports YoY (Aug 1) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - KR
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About Business Confidence — South Korea
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 82 %, consensus 81 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 80 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 74 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 | KR | Industrial Production YoY | 5.8 | -1.1 | 2.5 | 4.15 | Low |
| 23:00 | KR | Retail Sales MoM | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.60 | Low |
| 23:00 | KR | Industrial Production MoM | 6.4 | -2.9 | 3 | 4.70 | Low |