South Korea’s Consumer Confidence Surges to 112.40 in November 2025: A Macro Outlook
The latest Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for South Korea, released on November 24, 2025, shows a notable rise to 112.40, surpassing both the market estimate of 110.00 and last month’s 109.80 reading. This marks the highest level since August 2025 and reflects growing optimism among Korean consumers amid evolving economic conditions. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report compares the current reading with historical trends and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications for South Korea’s economy.
Table of Contents
South Korea’s consumer confidence has climbed steadily over the past year, with the November 2025 figure of 112.40 representing a 2.40-point increase from October and a 20.60-point rise from November 2024’s 91.80 average. This upward trajectory signals improving household sentiment amid a backdrop of moderate economic growth and easing inflationary pressures.
Drivers this month
- Stronger labor market conditions boosted confidence by approximately 0.70 points.
- Improved retail sales and durable goods purchases contributed 0.50 points.
- Government stimulus measures and fiscal support added 0.40 points.
- Geopolitical tensions in the region remained stable, limiting downside risks.
Policy pulse
The current confidence level sits comfortably above the long-run average of 98.50, aligning with the Bank of Korea’s inflation target range of 2%. The central bank’s cautious monetary tightening since mid-2025 appears to have balanced inflation control without dampening consumer sentiment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The KRW/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting increased risk appetite. South Korean equity futures also gained modestly, with the KOSPI index up 0.40%.
Consumer confidence is a leading indicator for household spending, which accounts for nearly 55% of South Korea’s GDP. The November reading of 112.40 correlates with recent improvements in core macroeconomic indicators such as retail sales growth (1.20% MoM in October), unemployment rate (3.10% in October), and inflation easing to 2.30% YoY from 2.70% in September.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Korea has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the policy rate steady at 3.50% since September 2025. Financial conditions have tightened slightly but remain accommodative, supporting credit growth of 4.10% YoY as of October. This balance has helped sustain consumer borrowing and spending power.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including targeted subsidies and infrastructure spending, have contributed to consumer optimism. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, signaling fiscal prudence alongside growth support.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Regional geopolitical risks, particularly related to North Korea and trade tensions with China, have remained contained. Stable export growth (3.50% YoY in October) and resilient global demand underpin the positive sentiment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The KOSPI index rallied 0.40% following the release, while the KRW appreciated against the USD by 0.30%. Bond yields remained stable, indicating confidence in the economic outlook without inflation fears.
This chart highlights a clear upward trajectory in consumer confidence, reversing the stagnation seen in early 2025. The trend suggests growing household willingness to spend, which could fuel GDP growth in Q4 and beyond.
Looking ahead, consumer confidence in South Korea faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects a moderate rise to 114.00 by year-end 2025, supported by stable inflation, steady employment, and ongoing fiscal support.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected export growth and easing geopolitical tensions.
- Further fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy.
- Consumer confidence surpasses 115, boosting retail sales and investment.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Gradual improvement in labor market and inflation stabilizes near 2%.
- Consumer confidence rises modestly to 114 by year-end.
- GDP growth steady at 2.50% YoY in Q4 2025.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Renewed geopolitical tensions or global demand slowdown.
- Inflation spikes above 3%, prompting monetary tightening.
- Consumer confidence dips below 110, slowing consumption growth.
South Korea’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index signals a robust recovery in household sentiment. The rise to 112.40 reflects improving economic fundamentals and effective policy support. However, vigilance is warranted given external uncertainties and inflation risks. Monitoring consumer confidence alongside core macro indicators will be crucial for policymakers and investors navigating the year-end economic landscape.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence in South Korea is a bellwether for domestic consumption and economic momentum. Markets sensitive to this indicator include equities, currency pairs, and credit instruments. The following symbols historically track or influence the sentiment shifts:
- KOSPI – South Korea’s benchmark equity index, closely tied to domestic economic sentiment.
- KRWUSD – The Korean won to US dollar exchange rate, reflecting capital flows and risk appetite.
- SAMSUNG – A major export-driven conglomerate sensitive to consumer and global demand.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with risk sentiment shifts in emerging markets.
- USDKRW – The inverse of KRWUSD, important for import costs and inflation outlook.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. KOSPI Index Since 2020
| Year | Average Consumer Confidence | KOSPI Year-End Level | Correlation Coefficient |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 85.30 | 2,873 | 0.78 |
| 2021 | 92.10 | 3,200 | |
| 2022 | 89.70 | 2,850 | |
| 2023 | 95.40 | 3,400 | |
| 2024 | 98.50 | 3,600 |
The strong positive correlation (0.78) between consumer confidence and the KOSPI index since 2020 underscores the index’s predictive power for equity market performance in South Korea.
FAQs
- What does the latest Consumer Confidence Index indicate for South Korea?
- The index at 112.40 signals rising optimism among consumers, suggesting stronger household spending ahead.
- How does consumer confidence affect South Korea’s economy?
- Higher confidence typically leads to increased consumption, which drives GDP growth and supports corporate earnings.
- What are the risks to the current positive outlook on consumer confidence?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions, inflation spikes, and global demand shocks that could dampen sentiment.
Key takeaway: South Korea’s consumer confidence is trending upward, reflecting resilient economic fundamentals and balanced policy support, but external risks remain a watchpoint.
KOSPI – South Korea’s benchmark equity index, closely tied to domestic economic sentiment.
KRWUSD – The Korean won to US dollar exchange rate, reflecting capital flows and risk appetite.
SAMSUNG – A major export-driven conglomerate sensitive to consumer and global demand.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often correlates inversely with risk sentiment shifts in emerging markets.
USDKRW – The inverse of KRWUSD, important for import costs and inflation outlook.
The November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index of 112.40 is up from 109.80 in October and well above the 12-month average of 98.50. This marks a sustained upward trend since May 2025, when the index was 101.80, reflecting steady recovery from the pandemic-era lows below 90 in late 2024.
The 2.40-point MoM increase is the largest monthly gain since August 2025, driven by improved labor market conditions and fiscal stimulus.