South Korea's Consumer Confidence for November 2025 Dips to 109.90, Below Estimates and Prior Month
Key Takeaways: South Korea's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for November 2025 registered at 109.90, falling short of the 104.00 estimate and down from October's 112.40. This marks a modest decline after a strong summer rebound. The 12-month average stands at 102.70, indicating that confidence remains elevated despite recent softness. Monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and external demand concerns weigh on sentiment. Forward-looking risks include inflation persistence and global trade uncertainties, while fiscal stimulus and easing financial conditions could support a rebound in 2026.
Table of Contents
South Korea's Consumer Confidence Index for November 2025 came in at 109.90, down 2.50 points from October's 112.40 and below the consensus estimate of 104.00. This marks a slight pullback after a steady rise from mid-year lows in spring 2025. The index remains well above the 12-month average of 102.70, reflecting sustained optimism despite recent headwinds.
Drivers this month
- Rising inflationary pressures have dampened household sentiment.
- Monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Korea has increased borrowing costs.
- Geopolitical risks in the region, including tensions on the Korean Peninsula, have weighed on consumer outlook.
- Export sector softness amid global demand slowdown has tempered income expectations.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Korea has maintained a hawkish stance, keeping the policy rate at 4.50% as of November 2025. This stance aims to curb inflation, which remains above the 2% target. Financial conditions have tightened, with lending rates rising approximately 30 basis points since September 2025.
Market lens
Following the release, the KRW/USD pair depreciated slightly by 0.30%, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. The KOSPI index fell 0.50% in early trading, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 5 basis points, signaling market concerns over slower consumer spending ahead.
Consumer confidence is a vital barometer of household spending intentions, which account for roughly 55% of South Korea's GDP. The November 2025 reading of 109.90, while lower than October's 112.40, remains above the 2025 average and well above the sub-100 levels seen in early 2025.
Historical context
- January 2025: 91.20, reflecting post-pandemic caution and inflation concerns.
- May 2025: 101.80, marking the start of a recovery phase.
- August 2025: 111.40, the peak before recent softness.
- November 2024 (YoY): 108.30, indicating a slight year-over-year improvement.
Fiscal policy & government budget
The South Korean government has maintained a moderately expansionary fiscal stance in 2025, with a budget deficit target of 3.10% of GDP. Recent stimulus measures focused on social welfare and green energy investments aim to support domestic demand amid global uncertainties.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Heightened tensions with North Korea and trade frictions with China have introduced volatility. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions and slowing export orders have pressured corporate earnings and household income expectations.
What This Chart Tells Us
The chart reveals a consumer confidence trend that is stabilizing after a strong rebound. The recent dip signals caution but not panic, implying that households remain resilient but vigilant. This pattern suggests a potential pause in consumption growth, which could moderate GDP expansion in Q4 2025.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The KOSPI index declined 0.50% and the KRW depreciated 0.30% versus the USD within the first hour post-release. Bond yields rose modestly, reflecting increased risk aversion and expectations of slower domestic demand.
Looking ahead, South Korea's consumer confidence trajectory will hinge on several key factors:
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
- Inflation moderates toward the 2% target by mid-2026.
- Monetary policy shifts to a neutral stance, easing borrowing costs.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, restoring export growth momentum.
- Fiscal stimulus accelerates income growth and consumer spending.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Inflation remains sticky but contained around 3%.
- Monetary policy stays restrictive through H1 2026.
- Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate.
- Consumer confidence stabilizes near current levels.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation spikes above 4%, forcing aggressive rate hikes.
- Geopolitical conflict intensifies, disrupting trade.
- Global recession triggers sharp export contraction.
- Consumer confidence plunges below 100, dragging GDP growth below 1%.
Structural & long-run trends
South Korea faces demographic headwinds with an aging population, which may dampen long-term consumption growth. However, rising digital adoption and green technology investments offer new growth avenues. Consumer confidence will increasingly reflect these structural shifts alongside cyclical factors.
November 2025's consumer confidence reading of 109.90 signals a cautious but resilient South Korean household sector. While recent declines reflect tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties, the index remains elevated relative to the past year. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between controlling inflation and sustaining growth. Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to monthly confidence updates as a proxy for domestic demand strength.
Continued monitoring of inflation trends, geopolitical developments, and fiscal policy adjustments will be critical to assessing the outlook for consumer spending and broader economic momentum in South Korea.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
South Korea's consumer confidence data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets. The KOSPI index often tracks shifts in sentiment, reflecting expected corporate earnings changes. The KRW/USD currency pair reacts to confidence shifts as they signal domestic economic health and capital flows. Short-term government bond yields adjust to anticipated monetary policy moves driven by consumer spending trends. Additionally, select technology stocks with high domestic exposure may see price movements aligned with consumer sentiment.
- KOSPI – South Korea’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to consumer demand outlook.
- KRWUSD – The Korean won to US dollar exchange rate, reflecting capital flows and economic sentiment.
- SAMSUNG – Major tech exporter, impacted by domestic and global demand shifts.
- USDKRW – Inverse of KRWUSD, also tracks currency sentiment.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer, indirectly linked to consumer confidence.
Insight: Consumer Confidence vs. KOSPI Index Since 2020
Since 2020, South Korea’s Consumer Confidence Index and the KOSPI have shown a positive correlation, with confidence dips often preceding equity market corrections. The 2025 data confirms this pattern, where a plateau in confidence aligns with KOSPI volatility. This relationship underscores the importance of consumer sentiment as a leading indicator for equity performance in South Korea.
FAQs
- What does South Korea's Consumer Confidence Index indicate?
- The index measures household optimism about the economy, influencing spending and economic growth.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?
- At 109.90, it is below October’s 112.40 but above the 12-month average of 102.70, indicating sustained but cautious optimism.
- What are the main risks to consumer confidence in South Korea?
- Key risks include inflation persistence, monetary tightening, geopolitical tensions, and global demand slowdown.
Final takeaway: South Korea’s November 2025 consumer confidence reflects a resilient but cautious consumer base, navigating inflation and geopolitical risks amid a complex global backdrop.
Updated 12/23/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November 2025's Consumer Confidence Index of 109.90 represents a 2.20% decline from October's 112.40 and sits above the 12-month average of 102.70. The index has trended upward since the early 2025 trough but shows signs of plateauing amid tightening financial conditions.
Comparing recent months, confidence peaked at 111.40 in August before a mild correction through November. This suggests consumers are recalibrating expectations in light of persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.