South Korea’s export prices YoY surged to 4.80% in November 2025, reversing a multi-month downtrend that bottomed at -4.50% in July. This rebound signals renewed pricing power amid shifting global demand and supply chain adjustments. The increase is the highest since April 2025’s 6.30%, and well above the 12-month average of approximately 1.30% since February 2025. This recovery aligns with easing global commodity price pressures and a partial normalization of trade flows post-pandemic disruptions.

Drivers this month

• Stronger semiconductor and petrochemical export prices contributed 1.80 percentage points (pp) to the rise.
• Currency effects: KRW depreciation against USD added roughly 0.50 pp to export price gains.
• Global supply chain normalization improved pricing power by 1.00 pp.

Policy pulse

The print exceeds the Bank of Korea’s inflation target range of 2%, suggesting export price inflation is a growing input cost factor. The central bank may weigh this data in upcoming monetary policy decisions, balancing inflation risks with growth concerns.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KRW/USD spot rate weakened 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over imported inflation. The 2-year government bond yield rose 5 basis points, signaling modest tightening expectations.

Export prices are a critical component of South Korea’s trade competitiveness and inflation dynamics. The 4.80% YoY increase contrasts sharply with the negative prints from June through September, when prices fell as much as 4.50%. This volatility reflects external shocks and internal cost pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Korea has maintained a cautious stance amid inflationary pressures and slowing growth. The recent export price surge may prompt a reassessment of interest rate trajectories. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with the benchmark rate at 3.50% and credit growth slowing to 4.20% YoY.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains supportive, with the government running a modest deficit of 2.80% of GDP in 2025. Targeted subsidies for export-oriented industries and infrastructure investments aim to sustain competitiveness amid global uncertainties.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing tensions in Northeast Asia and supply chain disruptions from China’s regulatory shifts continue to pose risks. However, easing semiconductor shortages and stable energy prices have mitigated some export price volatility recently.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KRW depreciated 0.30% vs. USD, reflecting concerns about imported inflation. The 2-year bond yield rose 5 basis points, indicating expectations of tighter monetary policy. Equity markets showed mixed responses, with export-heavy sectors gaining modestly.

Looking ahead, South Korea’s export price trajectory will hinge on global demand, currency movements, and supply chain conditions. We outline three scenarios with associated probabilities:

• Bullish (30% probability): Sustained global demand recovery and stable KRW support export price growth above 5%, boosting corporate earnings and trade surplus.
• Base (50% probability): Moderate export price growth around 3-4%, reflecting balanced global growth and manageable inflation pressures.
• Bearish (20% probability): Renewed geopolitical tensions or global slowdown push export prices below 2%, pressuring exporters and the broader economy.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term, South Korea’s export price dynamics are shaped by technological innovation, diversification of export markets, and shifts toward higher value-added products. The recent rebound may signal a transition phase as exporters adapt to new global trade realities and inflation regimes.

South Korea’s November 2025 export prices YoY print of 4.80% marks a decisive recovery from mid-year lows. This rebound reflects improving global demand, currency effects, and easing supply chain constraints. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation. Market participants should watch for sustained momentum in export prices as a bellwether for broader economic health.

Key Markets Likely to React to Export Prices YoY

Export prices influence multiple asset classes tied to South Korea’s trade and currency dynamics. The following symbols historically track or react to export price shifts:

• 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics) – A bellwether for semiconductor export pricing and global tech demand.
• KRWUSD – The Korean won’s exchange rate against the US dollar, sensitive to export competitiveness.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment and capital flows impacting emerging markets.
• 000660.KS (SK Hynix) – Key semiconductor exporter affected by export price shifts.
• USDKRW – The inverse of KRWUSD, also critical for export price competitiveness analysis.

FAQs

What is the significance of South Korea’s Export Prices YoY?

Export Prices YoY measure the change in prices received by exporters compared to the same month last year. It indicates pricing power, inflationary pressures, and competitiveness in global markets.

How does the export price increase affect South Korea’s economy?

Higher export prices can boost corporate revenues and trade balances but may also increase input costs and inflation, influencing monetary policy decisions.

What factors drive changes in South Korea’s export prices?

Key drivers include global demand, commodity prices, currency fluctuations, supply chain conditions, and geopolitical risks.

Takeaway: South Korea’s export prices are rebounding strongly, signaling improved global demand and pricing power. This trend will be pivotal for inflation, monetary policy, and market sentiment in the near term.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.