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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Export Prices YoY fell to 40.9% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Korea Export Prices YoY fell to 40.9% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.8% from August's 42.7% reading. The reading missed the 45.0% consensus by 4.1%. Export Prices YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Export Prices YoY averaged 45.75%, vs 45.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 81st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
40.9
Actual
45
Consensus
42.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 49.7
Actual: 42.4
Error: +7.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/KRW | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| KOSPI | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices YoY (South Korea) was reported at 40.9% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 45% by 4.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 42.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 24.19%, ranging from 2.2% to 49.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 46.8%, up from the prior three at 32.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 19.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.11%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices YoY has averaged 15.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/KRW (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Oct 26) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Oct 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Export Prices YoY - KR
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About Export Prices YoY — South Korea
DEFINITION
Export Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global market trends on its trade performance. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and investors as it can indicate potential shifts in inflation, currency values, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 40.9 %, consensus 45 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 42.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 49.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/KRW (Bearish USD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | KR | Import Prices YoY | 17.6 | 15.9 | 15.3 | 16.45 | Low |
| 21:00 | KR | Export Prices YoY | 40.9 | 42.7 | 45 | 42.95 | Low |
| 23:00 | KR | Unemployment Rate | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | Medium |