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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Exports YoY fell to 62.8% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
South Korea Exports YoY fell to 62.8% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 7.9% from June's 70.7% reading. The print exceeded the 59.0% consensus by 3.8%. Exports YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Exports YoY is now the highest in 26 months.
Latest Release
62.8
Actual
59
Consensus
70.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 49.18
Actual: 53.2
Error: -4.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (South Korea) was reported at 62.8% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 59% by 3.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 70.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 18.4%, ranging from 1.2% to 53.2% across 15 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 43.4%, up from the prior three at 25.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.86%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.77%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 15.58%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Exports YoY - KR
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About Exports YoY — South Korea
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 62.8 %, consensus 59 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 53.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 48 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Saturday, August 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 62.8 | 70.7 | 59 | 60.90 | Medium |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 26.5 | 30 | 26.6 | 26.55 | Low |
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 30.32 | 36.09 | 29.59 | 29.95 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.80 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Medium | |