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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Exports YoY climbed to 83.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Korea Exports YoY climbed to 83.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 14.8% from August's 68.7% reading. The print exceeded the 61.7% consensus by 21.8%. Exports YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 65.75%, vs 50.6% in the prior 3-month window. Exports YoY is now the highest in 26 months.
Latest Release
83.5
Actual
61.7
Consensus
68.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.36 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 64.18
Actual: 83.5
Error: -19.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/KRW | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (South Korea) was reported at 83.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 61.7% by 21.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 68.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 32.76%, ranging from 3.5% to 83.5% across 14 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 71.67%, up from the prior three at 43.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 25.5%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.42%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 29.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with USD/KRW, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.36%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports YoY - KR
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About Exports YoY — South Korea
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 83.5 %, consensus 61.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 68.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 62.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Sunday, November 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 49.97 | 37.24 | 37.61 | Low | |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 26 | 39.9 | 39.85 | Low | |
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 83.7 | 93.2 | 95.10 | Medium | |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 54.2 | 54.50 | Medium | |