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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
South Korea GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.8% in January 2026, released June 2026, up 2.2% from December's 1.6% reading. The print exceeded the 3.6% consensus by 0.2%. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 48 months.
Latest Release
3.8
Actual
3.6
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.6
Actual: 3.8
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/KRW | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (South Korea) was reported at 3.8% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.6% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.4%, up from the prior three at 0.93%. In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/KRW (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - KR
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — South Korea
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/KRW (Bearish USD, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - KR Events
| Saturday, August 1, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | KR | Exports YoY | 62.8 | 70.7 | 59 | 60.90 | Medium |
| 00:00 | KR | Imports YoY | 26.5 | 30 | 26.6 | 26.55 | Low |
| 00:00 | KR | Balance of Trade | 30.32 | 36.09 | 29.59 | 29.95 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | KR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 52.5 | 52.80 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 23:00 | KR | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Medium | |