South Korea’s import prices YoY for November 2025 registered a 0.50% increase, slightly below the 0.60% recorded in October and well under the 0.90% market estimate. This figure continues the recovery from the sharp declines seen earlier this year, when prices plunged to -6.20% in July, the lowest point in the last 12 months. The moderation in import prices signals easing cost pressures on Korean manufacturers and consumers, reflecting softer global commodity prices and a cautious global trade environment.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices stabilized, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the import price index.
• Raw material costs edged up modestly, adding 0.08 percentage points.
• Currency effects: The KRW appreciated slightly against the USD, tempering import price inflation.

Policy pulse

The 0.50% YoY rise remains below the Bank of Korea’s inflation target range of 2%, suggesting limited imported inflationary pressure. This supports the central bank’s cautious stance, maintaining the current policy rate at 3.50% amid global uncertainties.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KRW/USD pair strengthened 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the softer-than-expected import price rise. The 2-year government bond yield dipped 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premiums.

Import prices are a vital indicator of external cost pressures feeding into domestic inflation and trade balances. South Korea’s 0.50% YoY increase in November contrasts sharply with the -6.20% trough in July 2025, highlighting a volatile commodity price environment. Over the past year, the average import price change has been -1.30%, underscoring persistent deflationary pressures from global supply chain normalization and subdued demand.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Bank of Korea’s monetary policy remains data-dependent. The subdued import price inflation reduces the urgency for further rate hikes. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with the KRW’s recent appreciation helping contain imported inflation.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal stimulus remains moderate, with the government focusing on targeted support rather than broad-based spending. The stable import price environment helps ease pressure on the trade deficit, supporting fiscal sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical tensions in East Asia and global trade disruptions continue to pose risks. However, the recent import price moderation suggests markets have priced in much of the uncertainty, though volatility could return if conflicts escalate.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The KRW/USD exchange rate strengthened by 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields fell 5 basis points, reflecting market relief at the softer import price increase. Equity markets showed mild gains in export-related sectors.

Looking ahead, South Korea’s import prices are likely to remain subdued but may gradually rise as global demand recovers and supply chain bottlenecks ease. The Bank of Korea will closely monitor these trends to calibrate monetary policy accordingly.

Bullish Scenario (30% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or fall further, keeping import prices below 1% YoY.
• KRW strengthens further, reducing imported inflation and supporting domestic consumption.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, boosting growth.

Base Scenario (50% probability)

• Import prices hover around 0.50%-1.00% YoY, reflecting balanced global supply-demand.
• Moderate KRW fluctuations with stable inflation expectations.
• Monetary policy remains steady, with cautious adjustments possible.

Bearish Scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks or commodity price spikes push import prices above 2% YoY.
• KRW weakens sharply, increasing imported inflation and pressuring the trade deficit.
• Bank of Korea forced into aggressive rate hikes, dampening growth.

South Korea’s November 2025 import prices YoY reading of 0.50% signals a cautious but steady recovery from earlier sharp declines. The data supports a moderate inflation outlook and a stable policy environment. However, external risks remain, requiring vigilance from policymakers and market participants. The interplay of currency movements, global commodity trends, and geopolitical developments will shape the trajectory of import prices and their broader macroeconomic impact.

Key Markets Likely to React to Import Prices YoY

Import prices directly influence currency strength, bond yields, and equity sectors sensitive to trade costs. The following tradable symbols historically track South Korea’s import price trends and are likely to react to future releases:

• USDKRW – The KRW/USD exchange rate is highly sensitive to import price changes, reflecting currency valuation shifts.
• KOSPI – South Korea’s main equity index, impacted by import cost pressures on exporters and manufacturers.
• 005930.KS – Samsung Electronics, a major exporter affected by input costs and currency fluctuations.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment shifts tied to macroeconomic data.
• EURUSD – Global risk sentiment and commodity price changes influence this major currency pair, indirectly affecting KR import prices.

Insight: Import Prices YoY vs. USDKRW Since 2020

Since 2020, South Korea’s import prices YoY and the USDKRW exchange rate have shown a strong inverse correlation. Periods of rising import prices often coincide with KRW depreciation, as higher import costs pressure the currency. For example, the sharp import price decline in mid-2025 corresponded with KRW strengthening by approximately 4%. This dynamic underscores the importance of import prices in currency valuation and monetary policy decisions.

FAQs

What does South Korea’s Import Prices YoY indicate?

South Korea’s Import Prices YoY measures the annual change in the cost of imported goods, reflecting external inflation pressures and influencing domestic inflation and trade balances.

How does Import Prices YoY affect South Korea’s economy?

Rising import prices can increase production costs and consumer prices, impacting inflation and monetary policy. Conversely, falling import prices ease inflation but may signal weak global demand.

Why is the Import Prices YoY important for investors?

Import prices influence currency strength, bond yields, and equity valuations, especially in export-driven economies like South Korea. Investors monitor this data to gauge inflation risks and policy shifts.

Final Takeaway

South Korea’s November 2025 import prices YoY data points to a cautious recovery in external cost pressures, supporting a stable inflation outlook and measured policy approach amid ongoing global uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.