Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South KoreaSouth Korea Trade Balance fell to 6.06B in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2025
South Korea Trade Balance fell to 6.06B in October 2025, released November 2025, down 3.47B from September's 9.53B reading. The print exceeded the 2.98B consensus by 3.08B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 6.67B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 8.24B, vs 6.34B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.06
Actual
2.98
Consensus
9.53
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.74 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2025
Predicted: 3.58
Actual: 6.06
Error: -2.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (South Korea) was reported at 6.06 billion in November 2025. This beat the market consensus of 2.98 billion by 3.08 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.53 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2025. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.39 billion, ranging from 6.06 billion to 9.56 billion across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.22 billion, down from the prior three at 7.56 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.54 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.74 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.74 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Consumer Confidence (Jun 22) and Business Confidence (Jun 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2025.
SHARE
Trade Balance - KR
Loading chart data...
About Trade Balance — South Korea
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 6.06 B, consensus 2.98 B. Prior reading (Sep 2025): 9.53 B. Before that (Sep 2025): 9.56 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.46) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.