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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Sri LankaSri Lanka Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% in January 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from December's 3.8% reading. The print came in cooler than the 4.5% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Unemployment Rate has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 31 months.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
4.5
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Dec 2025
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 4.3
Error: -0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Sri Lanka) was reported at 3.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.5% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through December 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.97%, down from the prior three at 4.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Unemployment Rate - LK
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About Unemployment Rate — Sri Lanka
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.8 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 4.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - LK Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | LK | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.10 | Low |