Lithuania’s GDP Growth Rate YoY Surges to 3.1% in December 2025, Marking Strongest Expansion Since Early 2025
Published: January 31, 2026 | Source: Sigmanomics database
Table of Contents
Lithuania’s GDP Growth Rate YoY for December 2025 registered a robust 3.1%, according to the latest Sigmanomics database release. This marks a significant acceleration from November’s 2.0% and surpasses the consensus estimate of 2.3%[1]. The December reading is the highest since April 2025, when growth last peaked at 3.4%. Year-on-year, Lithuania’s economy expanded by 1.4 percentage points more than in December 2024, when growth was just 1.7%.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output rose 4.2% YoY, led by electronics and food processing.
- Services sector expanded 3.7%, with IT and logistics outperforming.
- Household consumption rebounded, up 2.8% YoY, aided by moderating inflation and wage gains.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Lithuania has maintained a cautious stance, keeping policy rates steady as inflation trends toward the ECB’s 2% target. December’s GDP print provides room for patience, as growth now exceeds the 12-month average of 2.7%.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EURUSDLTU firmed 0.3% in the first hour post-release, reflecting renewed investor confidence in Lithuania’s growth prospects. Lithuanian government bond yields edged 4 basis points lower, while the OMXV index advanced 0.6%.
Core macroeconomic indicators reinforce the positive GDP surprise. Industrial production in December rose 3.9% YoY, up from 2.5% in November. Retail sales growth accelerated to 2.6% YoY, reversing a two-month slowdown. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.8%, while real wage growth reached 3.2% YoY, supporting household demand.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Monetary conditions remain broadly accommodative. The Bank of Lithuania’s policy rate is unchanged at 3.75%, mirroring the ECB. Credit growth to households and firms picked up to 4.1% YoY, with non-performing loans at a low 1.3% of total assets.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy is gradually tightening. The government deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP in Q4 2025, down from 2.7% a year earlier, as revenues outpaced spending. EU structural funds continue to support infrastructure and digitalization projects.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
While energy prices stabilized in Q4, Lithuania remains exposed to regional geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Export growth to the euro area rebounded 3.5% YoY, but trade with Russia and Belarus remains subdued.
GDP YoY (%) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 3.1 Month | Oct | Nov | Jan | Feb | Apr | May | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec
Drivers this month
- Net exports contributed 0.7 percentage points, as euro area demand improved.
- Fixed investment rose 3.5% YoY, led by construction and machinery upgrades.
- Government consumption added 0.3 percentage points, reflecting ongoing public investment.
Policy pulse
With GDP growth now above trend, policymakers are likely to maintain a steady hand. The Bank of Lithuania will watch for signs of overheating but sees no immediate need to tighten.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EURUSDLTU rose 0.3%, OMXV gained 0.6%, and Lithuanian government bonds rallied modestly. The positive surprise boosted sentiment, with risk premia narrowing across Baltic assets.
December’s GDP Growth Rate YoY of 3.1% marks a sharp rebound from November’s 2.0% and is well above the 12-month average of 2.7%. The latest print reverses a two-month soft patch and restores momentum seen in early 2025, when growth peaked at 3.8% in January and February. The chart below illustrates this dynamic, with a clear upward inflection in the final quarter of 2025.
Compared to October’s 1.7% and September’s 3.1%, the December figure signals a return to the upper end of Lithuania’s recent growth range. The 12-month trend line now slopes upward, indicating broad-based recovery.