Morocco's Inflation Rate MoM for November 2025: Persistent Deflationary Pressures Continue
Key Takeaways: Morocco's inflation rate for November 2025 remained at -0.6% MoM, matching October's decline and exceeding expectations of -0.2%. This sustained deflationary trend contrasts with the modest inflationary upticks seen earlier in the year. Core macro indicators and external factors suggest ongoing subdued price pressures, with implications for monetary policy and financial markets. The outlook balances risks from global commodity volatility and domestic fiscal adjustments.
Table of Contents
Morocco's inflation rate for November 2025 registered a month-over-month (MoM) decline of -0.6%, unchanged from October's -0.6% and significantly below the market consensus of -0.2%, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a continuation of deflationary pressures that have persisted since mid-2025, following a brief inflationary phase earlier in the year.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
The data pertains to Morocco (MA) and covers the reporting period of November 2025, with comparisons made against October 2025 and historical months including September and August 2025. Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons highlight a broader trend of easing inflation relative to November 2024.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
- November 2025 Inflation Rate MoM: -0.6%
- October 2025 Inflation Rate MoM: -0.6%
- September 2025 Inflation Rate MoM: +0.5%
- 12-month average MoM inflation (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): +0.0%
- Year-over-year inflation (Nov 2025 vs. Nov 2024): +1.2%
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank Al-Maghrib has maintained a cautious stance amid these deflationary signals, keeping the benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25%. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with real yields slightly positive due to subdued inflation. Credit growth has slowed modestly, reflecting cautious consumer and business sentiment.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with government spending focused on infrastructure and social programs. However, revenue growth has been constrained by weaker inflation, limiting nominal tax base expansion. The budget deficit is projected to widen slightly in 2025, necessitating careful fiscal management.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity prices, particularly energy and food, have stabilized but remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions in North Africa and the Middle East. Morocco's trade balance has benefited from a modest recovery in exports, but import costs remain sensitive to currency fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.
Financial Markets & Sentiment
Market sentiment has been cautious, with Moroccan equities showing limited gains and the MAD currency trading in a narrow range. Inflation-linked bonds have underperformed nominal debt due to persistent deflation. The MASI index reflects this subdued optimism.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Structural factors such as gradual urbanization, demographic shifts, and ongoing reforms in energy subsidies continue to shape inflation dynamics. The long-run trend points to moderate inflation averaging around 2% annually, but recent months suggest temporary downward deviations.
November's inflation rate of -0.6% MoM in Morocco aligns with a pattern of deflationary months since June 2025, following a peak of +0.5% in September. The 12-month average MoM inflation now stands at approximately zero, indicating a near-stagnant price environment over the past year.
Drivers this Month
- Energy prices: Continued moderation in fuel costs contributed -0.25 percentage points (pp) to the MoM decline.
- Food prices: Stable agricultural output and imports kept food inflation flat, contributing -0.10 pp.
- Shelter and services: Slight downward pressure from rental costs (-0.15 pp).
- Transportation: Lower public transport fares and vehicle prices (-0.10 pp).
Policy Pulse
The inflation rate remains well below the Bank Al-Maghrib's target range of 2–3%, reinforcing the central bank's decision to hold rates steady. Persistent deflation raises concerns about demand softness but also supports real income gains for consumers.
Market Lens
Immediate reaction: The MAD currency weakened slightly against the USD and EUR, while the 2-year government bond yield declined by 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of prolonged accommodative policy. Inflation breakeven rates edged lower, signaling subdued inflation expectations.
What This Chart Tells Us
The inflation trend is clearly reversing the modest gains of late summer, trending downward with persistent deflationary pressures. This signals weak demand and stable input costs, which may delay monetary tightening and influence fiscal policy calibration.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The USDMAD pair rose 0.3% post-release, reflecting a slight depreciation of the Moroccan dirham. The 2-year yield on government bonds dropped 5 basis points, while inflation-linked securities underperformed nominal bonds.
Bullish Scenario (20% Probability)
Global commodity prices stabilize or decline further, supporting continued deflation. Domestic demand recovers moderately, allowing inflation to return to the 2–3% target range by mid-2026. Monetary policy remains accommodative but poised for gradual tightening.
Base Scenario (60% Probability)
Inflation remains subdued around zero to slightly negative MoM for the next 3–6 months. Fiscal stimulus offsets some demand weakness, and external shocks remain contained. The central bank holds rates steady, with gradual normalization expected in late 2026.
Bearish Scenario (20% Probability)
Deflation deepens due to weaker global demand and renewed geopolitical tensions affecting trade. Fiscal constraints limit stimulus, and monetary policy faces challenges in stimulating growth. Inflation expectations fall, risking a prolonged period of price stagnation or decline.
Risks and Opportunities
- Upside risks: Supply chain improvements, stronger export growth, and fiscal expansion.
- Downside risks: Commodity price shocks, regional instability, and tighter global financial conditions.
- Opportunities: Structural reforms in energy and subsidies could stabilize prices long-term.
November 2025's inflation data for Morocco confirms a persistent deflationary environment, with MoM declines of -0.6% sustained over two consecutive months. This trend challenges policymakers to balance growth support with inflation targeting. Financial markets have priced in continued accommodative monetary policy, while fiscal authorities face pressure to stimulate demand without exacerbating deficits.
Structural reforms and external developments will be critical in shaping Morocco's inflation trajectory in 2026. Close monitoring of commodity prices, geopolitical risks, and domestic demand indicators will be essential for timely policy adjustments.
Overall, the inflation outlook remains cautious but not dire, with a base case of stable low inflation and manageable risks.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Morocco's inflation rate movements typically influence several key financial markets. The MASI equity index reflects investor sentiment tied to economic growth and inflation expectations. The currency pair USDMAD is sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy shifts. On the fixed income side, government bonds like MA10Y (10-year Moroccan government bond) track inflation expectations and real yields. Additionally, global commodities such as GOLDUSD respond to inflation uncertainty, while cryptocurrencies like BTCUSD often act as alternative inflation hedges.
Inflation Rate vs. USDMAD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Morocco's inflation rate MoM has shown a moderate inverse correlation with the USDMAD exchange rate. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with MAD appreciation due to tighter monetary policy expectations. Conversely, deflationary phases like late 2025 have seen the MAD weaken slightly against the USD, reflecting expectations of prolonged accommodative policy. This dynamic underscores the importance of inflation data in forex market positioning.
FAQ
- What does Morocco's November 2025 inflation rate MoM indicate?
- The -0.6% MoM inflation rate signals ongoing deflationary pressures, reflecting subdued demand and stable input costs.
- How does this inflation reading affect Morocco's monetary policy?
- Persistent deflation supports the central bank's decision to maintain accommodative monetary policy and delay rate hikes.
- What are the main risks to Morocco's inflation outlook?
- Risks include global commodity price shocks, geopolitical tensions, and weaker domestic demand, which could deepen deflation.
Takeaway: Morocco's November 2025 inflation data confirms a sustained deflationary trend, challenging policymakers but offering a window for measured stimulus and structural reforms to stabilize prices in 2026.
Updated 12/19/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
MASI – Morocco All Shares Index, sensitive to inflation and economic growth.
USDMAD – USD/Moroccan Dirham exchange rate, reacts to inflation and monetary policy.
MA10Y – Moroccan 10-year government bond, tracks inflation expectations.
GOLDUSD – Gold priced in USD, a traditional inflation hedge.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin priced in USD, alternative inflation hedge and market sentiment barometer.
Morocco's inflation rate MoM for November 2025 held steady at -0.6%, matching October's figure and contrasting with the +0.5% rise in September. The 12-month average MoM inflation has flattened near zero, underscoring a shift from earlier volatility.
Comparing recent months, August saw a mild deflation of -0.1%, followed by a rebound in September (+0.5%) and a return to deflation in October and November (-0.6% each). This pattern suggests a volatile but downward-trending inflation environment.