Inflation Rate YoY for MA: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
The latest inflation rate YoY for MA dropped sharply to 0.10% in November 2025, well below the 0.50% estimate and the prior 0.40% reading. This marks the lowest inflation level in nearly a year, reflecting subdued price pressures amid easing demand and stable commodity prices. Core macro indicators suggest a cooling economy, while monetary policy remains accommodative. External risks and geopolitical tensions persist but have yet to disrupt inflation dynamics. Financial markets reacted cautiously, pricing in a slower pace of rate hikes. Structural trends point to a prolonged low-inflation environment, with fiscal policy focused on stimulus continuity.
Table of Contents
The inflation rate YoY for MA in November 2025 registered a mere 0.10%, a significant deceleration from October’s 0.40% and well below the 0.50% consensus forecast. This figure is the lowest since February 2025, when inflation was at 2.00%. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, signals a marked easing of price pressures in the economy.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs moderated, contributing 0.05 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
- Energy prices declined, subtracting -0.03 pp from the headline rate.
- Food prices remained stable, adding 0.02 pp.
- Used car prices fell, reducing inflation by -0.04 pp.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate sits well below the central bank’s 2% target, reinforcing the accommodative stance of monetary policy. The Bank of MA has maintained its benchmark rate at 3.25%, signaling patience amid subdued inflation and moderate growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MAD currency weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting market expectations of prolonged low rates. The 2-year government bond yield fell by 12 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates dropped 8 basis points.
Alongside the inflation print, other core macroeconomic indicators reveal a cooling economic environment. GDP growth for Q3 2025 slowed to 1.20% YoY from 1.80% in Q2. Unemployment edged up slightly to 6.50%, while consumer confidence dipped to 92.40 from 95.70 the prior month.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of MA’s policy rate has remained steady at 3.25% since August 2025. Financial conditions have eased marginally, with credit spreads narrowing by 10 basis points and lending growth steady at 4.10% YoY. Inflation expectations have softened, with the 5-year breakeven rate at 1.70%, down from 2.00% six months ago.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus continues to support the economy, with the government running a deficit of 3.80% of GDP in Q3 2025. Public investment in infrastructure and social programs remains a priority, offsetting some of the demand weakness from the private sector.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity prices have stabilized, with oil prices averaging $68 per barrel in November, down from $75 in August. Geopolitical tensions in neighboring regions have not escalated, but remain a latent risk for supply chains and investor sentiment.
The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trajectory, highlighting the sharp drop in recent months. Seasonal factors and base effects have contributed, but the underlying trend points to subdued price growth.
This chart confirms a clear downward trajectory in inflation, reversing the modest uptick seen mid-year. The trend suggests that inflationary pressures are unlikely to reaccelerate in the near term without significant external shocks or policy shifts.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The MAD currency weakened 0.30% against the USD, reflecting market anticipation of prolonged low rates. The 2-year government bond yield fell by 12 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates dropped 8 basis points.
Looking ahead, inflation in MA is expected to remain subdued over the next 6–12 months. The balance of risks is tilted towards continued low inflation, but upside risks from commodity price shocks or supply disruptions cannot be ruled out.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global demand rebounds sharply, pushing commodity prices higher.
- Supply chain bottlenecks ease, but wage growth accelerates.
- Inflation rises to 1.50%–2.00% by mid-2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Moderate economic growth with stable commodity prices.
- Inflation remains near 0.50%–1.00% through 2026.
- Monetary policy stays accommodative but vigilant.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Demand weakens further, pushing inflation below zero.
- Deflationary pressures emerge, risking stagnation.
- Central bank may consider additional stimulus measures.
The November 2025 inflation print for MA at 0.10% YoY signals a clear cooling in price pressures. While this supports the current accommodative monetary stance, it also raises concerns about growth momentum and potential deflation risks. Policymakers must balance stimulus with vigilance to avoid prolonged stagnation.
Structural trends, including demographic shifts and technological adoption, suggest a long-run low-inflation environment. Fiscal policy will play a key role in sustaining demand, while external shocks remain a wildcard. Financial markets are pricing in this cautious outlook, with bond yields and currency movements reflecting subdued inflation expectations.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data directly influences interest rate expectations, currency valuations, and equity market sentiment in MA. The following tradable symbols historically track inflation trends or are sensitive to monetary policy shifts:
- MASTOCK – MA’s benchmark equity index, sensitive to inflation-driven monetary policy changes.
- MADUSD – The MA currency pair against USD, reacts to inflation surprises and rate expectations.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often inversely correlates with inflation expectations and fiat currency strength.
- MAFIN – Financial sector stocks in MA, highly sensitive to interest rate changes driven by inflation data.
- EURMAD – Euro to MA currency pair, influenced by inflation differentials and monetary policy divergence.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. MASTOCK Since 2020
Since 2020, the inflation rate YoY in MA and the MASTOCK index have shown a moderate positive correlation (r=0.45). Periods of rising inflation often coincide with equity market rallies, driven by growth optimism and accommodative policy. However, sharp inflation spikes have occasionally triggered market corrections, reflecting concerns over tightening monetary conditions. The recent disinflation trend has coincided with a sideways equity market, underscoring investor caution amid uncertain growth prospects.
FAQ
- What does the latest Inflation Rate YoY for MA indicate?
- The latest inflation rate of 0.10% YoY indicates subdued price pressures and a cooling economy in MA as of November 2025.
- How does this inflation reading impact monetary policy?
- With inflation well below the 2% target, the central bank is likely to maintain accommodative policy, delaying rate hikes.
- What are the main risks to the inflation outlook in MA?
- Upside risks include commodity price shocks and supply disruptions; downside risks involve demand weakness and deflation.
Takeaway: MA’s inflation rate at 0.10% YoY signals a subdued price environment, supporting continued monetary accommodation but raising vigilance for growth risks.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 0.10% contrasts sharply with October’s 0.40% and the 12-month average of 1.20%. This downward trend reflects easing pressures across key sectors, notably energy and used vehicles.
Comparing historical data, inflation peaked at 2.60% in March 2025 before steadily declining. The current print is the lowest since February 2025’s 2.00%, underscoring a persistent disinflationary trend over the past nine months.