Morocco’s interest rate decision for November 2025, released on December 16, 2025, maintained the benchmark rate at 2.25%, unchanged from October 2025 and consistent with the central bank’s stance since March 2025. This steady policy rate contrasts with the gradual easing from 3.00% in December 2023 to 2.25% over the past year, reflecting a calibrated approach amid evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Drivers this month

• Inflation remained moderate at 2.8% YoY in November, slightly below the 3.0% average of the previous six months.
• GDP growth estimates for Q3 2025 showed a modest 3.1% YoY expansion, steady compared to Q2’s 3.0%.
• Fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.5% of GDP in November, improving from 4.0% in October, supported by higher tax revenues.
• External trade balance showed a slight deficit of 1.2 billion MAD, stable relative to October’s 1.3 billion MAD.

Policy pulse

The central bank’s decision to hold rates at 2.25% aligns with its inflation target range of 2.0–3.0%. The steady rate supports ongoing economic recovery while guarding against inflationary pressures from global commodity price fluctuations.

Market lens

Financial markets reacted calmly, with the MAD currency pair USDMAD showing a minor 0.1% appreciation post-announcement. Short-term government bond yields remained stable, reflecting confidence in the central bank’s balanced approach.

Core macroeconomic indicators for November 2025 underpin the central bank’s decision. Inflation at 2.8% YoY is slightly below the 12-month average of 3.1%, indicating contained price pressures despite global supply chain disruptions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% MoM, a slowdown from October’s 0.4% increase.

GDP and employment

GDP growth remains steady at 3.1% YoY in Q3 2025, supported by resilient domestic demand and a rebound in tourism. Unemployment edged down to 9.8% in November from 10.1% in October, reflecting gradual labor market improvements.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.5% of GDP in November, compared to 4.0% in October, driven by improved tax collection and controlled public spending. Government debt stands at 65% of GDP, stable relative to prior months, providing fiscal space to support growth if needed.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global commodity prices remain volatile, with oil prices fluctuating around $85 per barrel, impacting import costs. Geopolitical tensions in the Mediterranean region pose risks to trade routes and investor sentiment, warranting cautious monitoring.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: USDMAD dipped 0.1% post-decision, reflecting mild MAD strengthening. Bond yields on 2-year government securities held steady at 3.0%, while equity markets showed limited volatility. Market participants interpret the steady rate as a signal of policy patience amid moderate inflation and external uncertainties.

Looking ahead, the central bank faces a complex environment balancing growth, inflation, and external risks. Three scenarios outline possible trajectories:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing inflation pressures.
• Fiscal consolidation continues, supporting macro stability.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, spurring investment and consumption.
• GDP growth accelerates above 3.5% in 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation remains within target range (2.0–3.0%).
• Fiscal deficit narrows gradually but remains manageable.
• Monetary policy holds steady at 2.25% through mid-2026.
• GDP growth steady at 3.0–3.2%.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity price shocks push inflation above 4.0%.
• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade and capital flows.
• Fiscal pressures increase, forcing tighter monetary policy.
• GDP growth slows below 2.5%, risking stagflation.

Monetary authorities will likely monitor inflation and external developments closely, ready to adjust policy if downside risks materialize.

Morocco’s November 2025 interest rate decision to maintain the benchmark at 2.25% reflects a prudent approach amid moderate inflation and steady economic growth. The central bank balances supporting recovery with vigilance against inflationary and external shocks. Fiscal discipline and geopolitical developments will remain key variables shaping monetary policy in the near term.

Financial markets responded calmly, signaling confidence in the central bank’s measured stance. However, ongoing global uncertainties require readiness for policy recalibration. The steady rate environment supports continued investment and consumption, underpinning Morocco’s medium-term growth prospects.