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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MongoliaMongolia Balance of Trade fell to 417M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Mongolia Balance of Trade fell to 417M in May 2026, released June 2026, down 321M from April's 738M reading. The reading missed the 670M consensus by 253M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 837M, vs 743.53M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
417
Actual
670
Consensus
738
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±246.22 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 612.5
Actual: 417
Error: +195.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Mongolia) was reported at 417.00 million in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 670.00 million by 253.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 738.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 555.69 million, ranging from 195.00 million to 906.50 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 568.33 million, down from the prior three at 807.03 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 226.04 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 149.96 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 355.87 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 246.23 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MN
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About Balance of Trade — Mongolia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 417 M, consensus 670 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 735 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 939 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.