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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MongoliaMongolia Balance of Trade climbed to 978M in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Mongolia Balance of Trade climbed to 978M in August 2026, released September 2026, up 211M from July's 767M reading. The print exceeded the 815M consensus by 163M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 727.5M, vs 697M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 32 months.
Latest Release
978
Actual
815
Consensus
767
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±217.5 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 848.5
Actual: 978
Error: -129.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Mongolia) was reported at 978.00 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 815.00 million by 163.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 767.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 702.17 million, ranging from 417.00 million to 978.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 811.00 million, up from the prior three at 568.33 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 165.15 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 120.76 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 551.97 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 217.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MN
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About Balance of Trade — Mongolia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 978 M, consensus 815 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 767 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 688 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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