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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MacaoMacao GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.1% in July 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased October 2026
Macao GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.1% in July 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from June's 0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.24%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Macao) was reported at 0.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.43%, ranging from 0.1% to 8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, down from the prior three at 7.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.64%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.8%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MO
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Macao
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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