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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MacaoMacao GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.3% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
Macao GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 0.3% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 6.8% from March's 7.1% reading. The reading missed the 4.5% consensus by 4.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.87%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
4.5
Consensus
7.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.5
Actual: 0.3
Error: +4.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Macao) was reported at 0.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.5% by 4.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.24%, ranging from 0.3% to 8% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5%, down from the prior three at 7.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.4%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MO
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Macao
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 7.1 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 7.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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