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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MacaoMacao Retail Sales YoY climbed to 23.0% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Macao Retail Sales YoY climbed to 23.0% in January 2026, released May 2026, up 23.1% from December's -0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 10.5% consensus by 12.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.23%. Retail Sales YoY is now the highest in 24 months.
Latest Release
23
Actual
10.5
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.8 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 9.8
Actual: 23
Error: -13.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Macao) was reported at 23% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.5% by 12.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.9%, up from the prior three at -10.27%. In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged -2.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.8%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - MO
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About Retail Sales YoY — Macao
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 23 %, consensus 10.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -0.1 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.