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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MauritiusMauritius Balance of Trade fell to -22.1M in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
Mauritius Balance of Trade fell to -22.1M in October 2025, released December 2025, down 6.6M from September's -15.5M reading. The reading missed the -14.7M consensus by 7.4M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -16.93M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -18.47M, vs -16.54M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
-22.1
Actual
-14.7
Consensus
-15.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.94 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Dec 2025
Predicted: -13.52
Actual: -22.1
Error: +8.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Mauritius) was reported at -22.10 million in December 2025. This missed the market consensus of -14.70 million by 7.40 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -15.50 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through December 2025. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -17.41 million, ranging from -22.10 million to -14.60 million across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -18.47 million, down from the prior three at -16.10 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.38 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.16 million). In December readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -18.40 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.94 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Balance of Trade - MU
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About Balance of Trade — Mauritius
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual -22.1 M, consensus -14.7 M. Prior reading (Oct 2025): -22.1 M. Before that (Sep 2025): -15.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.81) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.