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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia Balance of Trade climbed to 28.8M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Malaysia Balance of Trade climbed to 28.8M in April 2026, released May 2026, up 4.3M from March's 24.5M reading. The print exceeded the 16.6M consensus by 12.2M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 20.9M, vs 12.7M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
28.8
Actual
16.6
Consensus
24.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.21 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 19.9
Actual: 28.8
Error: -8.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Malaysia) was reported at 28.80 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.60 million by 12.20 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 24.50 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.61 million, ranging from 0.80 million to 28.80 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 22.30 million, up from the prior three at 14.80 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.46 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.93 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 13.90 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.21 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 19) and Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MY
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About Balance of Trade — Malaysia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 28.8 M, consensus 16.6 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 24.6 M. Before that (Feb 2026): 16.7 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.