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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia Balance of Trade fell to 14.9M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Malaysia Balance of Trade fell to 14.9M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 25M from May's 39.9M reading. The reading missed the 42M consensus by 27.1M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 19.66M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 34.6M, vs 20.9M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
14.9
Actual
42
Consensus
39.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 49.35
Actual: 14.9
Error: +34.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Malaysia) was reported at 14.90 million in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 42.00 million by 27.10 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 39.90 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19.78 million, ranging from 6.10 million to 40.40 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 28.03 million, up from the prior three at 19.13 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.35 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.63 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 12.60 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product YoY (Aug 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MY
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About Balance of Trade — Malaysia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 14.9 M, consensus 42 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 40.4 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 28.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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