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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia Balance of Trade climbed to 33.72M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Malaysia Balance of Trade climbed to 33.72M in September 2026, released October 2026, up 5.63M from August's 28.09M reading. The reading missed the 45M consensus by 11.28M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 25.3M, vs 28.03M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
33.72
Actual
45
Consensus
28.09
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 46.95
Actual: 33.72
Error: +13.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Malaysia) was reported at 33.72 million in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 45.00 million by 11.28 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 28.09 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 22.81 million, ranging from 6.10 million to 40.40 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 28.11 million, up from the prior three at 28.03 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.05 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.83 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 22.27 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.00 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate (Nov 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - MY
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About Balance of Trade — Malaysia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 33.72 M, consensus 45 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 28.1 M. Before that (Jul 2026): 22.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bearish Hang Seng, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - MY Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | MY | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | 50.2 | 49.95 | Low | |