Malaysia’s current account balance for November 2025 registered a robust surplus of MYR 12.20 billion, a significant jump from the previous month’s MYR 0.30 billion and well above market expectations of MYR 4.60 billion. This figure represents a strong recovery from the August 2025 low of MYR 0.30 billion and is the second highest in the past 18 months, trailing only the May 2025 peak of MYR 16.70 billion, according to the Sigmanomics database.

Drivers this month

• Export growth accelerated, driven by electronics and palm oil shipments.
• Commodity prices, especially crude palm oil and rubber, remained elevated.
• Import growth moderated, reflecting cautious domestic demand.
• Tourism receipts improved modestly amid easing travel restrictions.

Policy pulse

The current account surplus supports Bank Negara Malaysia’s accommodative monetary stance, providing room to maintain interest rates near 3.25%. Inflation remains contained, allowing the central bank to balance growth and external stability.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The MYR strengthened by 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields edged down 5 basis points, reflecting improved external confidence.

The current account surplus of MYR 12.20 billion in November 2025 contrasts sharply with the narrow surplus of MYR 0.30 billion recorded in August 2025 and the MYR 2.20 billion in November 2024. Over the past year, the average monthly surplus stood at approximately MYR 7.10 billion, underscoring the strength of the latest print.

Core macroeconomic indicators

• GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 4.50% YoY, supported by export-led manufacturing.
• Inflation held steady at 2.80% YoY, within the central bank’s target range.
• Unemployment remained low at 3.20%, supporting steady domestic consumption.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Bank Negara Malaysia has kept the Overnight Policy Rate at 3.25% since mid-2025. The current account surplus provides a buffer against external shocks, allowing the central bank to avoid premature tightening despite global rate hikes by major central banks.

Fiscal policy & government budget

The government’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.10% of GDP in Q3 2025, aided by higher commodity revenues and improved tax collection. Fiscal prudence supports external stability by limiting reliance on foreign borrowing.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: MYR/USD appreciated 0.40%, while 2-year government bond yields declined 5 basis points, signaling market confidence in Malaysia’s external position.

Looking ahead, Malaysia’s current account trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, commodity prices, and geopolitical risks. The baseline scenario projects a sustained surplus averaging MYR 8–10 billion monthly over the next two quarters, supported by steady exports and moderate import growth.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global demand rebounds faster than expected, boosting exports by 10–12% YoY.
• Commodity prices remain elevated, supporting trade surplus expansion.
• Stable geopolitical environment enhances investor confidence and capital inflows.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth sustains export momentum at 5–7% YoY.
• Commodity prices stabilize near current levels.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting domestic demand.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade routes, reducing exports by 5% YoY.
• Commodity prices fall sharply due to global oversupply.
• Global financial tightening pressures capital flows and MYR stability.

Malaysia’s current account surplus of MYR 12.20 billion in November 2025 signals strong external resilience amid a complex global environment. The rebound from the August trough reflects improved export performance and stable commodity prices. However, ongoing geopolitical risks and global monetary tightening warrant vigilance. Policymakers should maintain fiscal discipline and accommodative monetary policy to support growth and external stability. Financial markets are likely to remain sensitive to external shocks, but the current account strength provides a solid buffer.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

The current account surplus is a critical indicator for Malaysia’s currency, bond yields, and equity markets. Stronger surpluses typically bolster the MYR and reduce sovereign risk premiums, influencing foreign investment flows. Key tradable symbols historically correlated with Malaysia’s current account include:

• MYRMYR – The Malaysian Ringgit’s strength often tracks current account health.
• FBMKLCI – Malaysia’s benchmark equity index reacts to external sector shifts.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s risk-on sentiment can correlate inversely with external shocks.
• PMETAL – Reflects commodity-related export sector performance.
• USDMYR – The USD/MYR pair is sensitive to current account fluctuations.

Extras: Current Account vs. MYRMYR Exchange Rate Since 2020

Since 2020, Malaysia’s current account balance and the MYR/USD exchange rate have shown a strong positive correlation. Periods of rising current account surpluses, such as mid-2021 and mid-2025, coincided with MYR appreciation against the USD. Conversely, deficits or narrow surpluses aligned with MYR depreciation. This relationship underscores the current account’s role as a key driver of currency strength and external confidence.

FAQs

What is the significance of Malaysia’s current account surplus?

The current account surplus indicates Malaysia exports more goods and services than it imports, strengthening the MYR and supporting economic stability.

How does the current account affect monetary policy in Malaysia?

A strong current account surplus provides the central bank flexibility to maintain accommodative rates without risking external imbalances.

What are the risks to Malaysia’s current account outlook?

Risks include global demand shocks, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical tensions that could reduce export earnings and widen the deficit.

Final takeaway: Malaysia’s November 2025 current account surplus of MYR 12.20 billion marks a decisive external rebound, underpinning currency strength and policy flexibility amid global uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/14/25