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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia Exports YoY fell to 38.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Malaysia Exports YoY fell to 38.0% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 7.5% from June's 45.5% reading. The print exceeded the 34.3% consensus by 3.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 18.36%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 45.35%, vs 18.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
38
Actual
34.3
Consensus
45.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 40.75
Actual: 38
Error: +2.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Malaysia) was reported at 38% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 34.3% by 3.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 45.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 22.11%, ranging from 1.9% to 45.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 42.9%, up from the prior three at 22.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 15.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.45%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 19.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 18) and Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Exports YoY - MY
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About Exports YoY — Malaysia
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 38 %, consensus 34.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 45.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 45.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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