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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia Exports YoY climbed to 36.9% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Malaysia Exports YoY climbed to 36.9% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 28.5% from March's 8.4% reading. The print exceeded the 9.0% consensus by 27.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.71%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 12.9%, vs 8.7% in the prior 3-month window. Exports YoY is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
36.9
Actual
9
Consensus
8.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 10.2
Actual: 36.9
Error: -26.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| USD/MYR | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Malaysia) was reported at 36.9% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 9% by 27.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 8.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.61%, ranging from -3.5% to 36.9% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 22.43%, up from the prior three at 11.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.81%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 20.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with USD/MYR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 19) and Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Exports YoY - MY
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About Exports YoY — Malaysia
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 36.9 %, consensus 9 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 8.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 10.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.