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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 5.4% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Malaysia GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 5.4% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.8% from December's 6.2% reading. The reading matched the 5.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.04%. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.4
Actual
5.3
Consensus
6.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.3
Actual: 5.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Malaysia) was reported at 5.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.24%, ranging from 4.4% to 6.3% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.8%, up from the prior three at 4.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.61%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.53%). In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/MYR (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 19) and Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - MY
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Malaysia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 5.4 %, consensus 5.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 6.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MYR (Bearish USD, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.