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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MalaysiaMalaysia Trade Balance climbed to 19.9B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
Malaysia Trade Balance climbed to 19.9B in September 2025, released October 2025, up 4.0B from August's 15.9B reading. The print exceeded the 16.8B consensus by 3.1B. Trade Balance has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged 15.55B, vs 4.87B in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
19.9
Actual
16.8
Consensus
15.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.1 billion
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 21.45
Actual: 19.9
Error: +1.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.90 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/MYR | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Malaysia) was reported at 19.90 billion in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of 16.80 billion by 3.10 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 15.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.00 billion, up from the prior three at 4.87 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.10 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 19) and Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - MY
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About Trade Balance — Malaysia
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 19.9 B, consensus 16.8 B. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 16.1 B. Before that (Jul 2025): 15 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.90) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.