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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NigeriaNigeria Food Inflation YoY fell to 19.57% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Nigeria Food Inflation YoY fell to 19.57% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.74% from July's 20.31% reading. The reading missed the 21.0% consensus by 1.43%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 14.7%. Over the past 3 months, Food Inflation YoY averaged 20.06%, vs 15.85% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
19.57
Actual
21
Consensus
20.31
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 22.26
Actual: 19.57
Error: +2.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Food Inflation YoY (Nigeria) was reported at 19.57% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 21% by 1.43%. The reading fell from the previous value of 20.31%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.58%, ranging from 8.89% to 20.31% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.95%, up from the prior three at 12.36%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.71%) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.95%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Food Inflation YoY has averaged 26.32%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.57%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Food Inflation YoY - NG
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About Food Inflation YoY — Nigeria
DEFINITION
Food Inflation YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of food items over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall trend of food prices and can help businesses and consumers anticipate potential changes in their food expenses. This indicator is commonly used by economists and policymakers to monitor the impact of food prices on inflation and to make informed decisions regarding monetary and fiscal policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 19.57 %, consensus 21 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 19.57 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 20.31 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.68) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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