November 2025 Food Inflation YoY in Nigeria: A Data-Driven Analysis
Table of Contents
Nigeria’s food inflation rate for November 2025 dropped to 13.12% YoY, down from 16.87% in October and well below the 16.50% forecast. This marks the fourth consecutive month of deceleration, following a peak of 22.74% in August. The data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a notable easing in inflationary pressures within the food sector, a critical component of Nigeria’s consumer basket.
Drivers this month
- Improved harvests and supply chain normalization reduced food price pressures.
- Stabilization of the NGN exchange rate against major currencies eased import costs.
- Lower global commodity prices for staples like maize and rice contributed to easing.
Policy pulse
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continues to maintain a cautious stance. The current food inflation is above the 6-9% target range but shows progress toward moderation. The CBN’s monetary tightening since mid-2025, including a 150 basis point hike in the policy rate, appears to be gradually tempering inflation without stalling growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The NGN appreciated modestly by 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 12 basis points, reflecting improved inflation expectations.
The food inflation figure is a vital macroeconomic indicator for Nigeria, given that food accounts for roughly 45% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket. The 13.12% YoY rate contrasts sharply with the 21.87% recorded in September and the 22.74% peak in August, signaling a significant easing trend over the past three months.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The CBN’s monetary tightening since June 2025, including raising the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 14.50% to 16%, has helped anchor inflation expectations. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with credit growth slowing to 5.20% YoY in October from 7.80% earlier in the year. The NGN’s relative stability against the USD and EUR has reduced imported inflation pressures.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains constrained by limited revenue growth and high subsidy costs. The 2025 federal budget projects a deficit of 3.50% of GDP, with food subsidies and agricultural support programs prioritized to stabilize prices. However, delays in subsidy payments and infrastructure bottlenecks continue to pose risks to supply chain efficiency.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, particularly in grains and edible oils, remains a key external risk. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have kept global food prices elevated, though recent easing in shipping costs has helped Nigeria’s import bills. Domestic security challenges in key agricultural zones also threaten supply consistency.
The chart below illustrates the monthly food inflation YoY trend from June 2025 through November 2025:
- June 2025: 21.14%
- July 2025: 21.97%
- August 2025: 22.74%
- September 2025: 21.87%
- October 2025: 16.87%
- November 2025: 13.12%
This chart confirms a clear downward trend in food inflation, reversing the sharp increases seen in mid-2025. The easing is likely to reduce headline inflation pressures and support consumer purchasing power in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NGN/USD spot rates strengthened by 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 12 basis points, signaling improved inflation outlooks. Equity markets showed mild gains in consumer staples sectors, reflecting optimism about easing input costs.
Looking ahead, food inflation in Nigeria faces a mixed outlook shaped by domestic and external factors. The current easing trend is encouraging but not guaranteed to continue without sustained policy support and supply chain improvements.
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
- Continued agricultural output growth and improved logistics reduce food price pressures.
- Stable NGN exchange rate and lower global commodity prices keep imported inflation in check.
- Monetary policy remains calibrated, supporting growth and inflation moderation.
- Food inflation falls below 10% by Q1 2026.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
- Food inflation stabilizes around 12-14% through early 2026.
- Moderate currency volatility and fiscal constraints limit further easing.
- Supply chain disruptions persist but are manageable.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Renewed geopolitical shocks push global food prices higher.
- Domestic security issues disrupt agricultural production.
- Fiscal pressures force subsidy cuts, increasing food costs.
- Food inflation rebounds above 16% by mid-2026.
Policy makers should monitor these risks closely. The Central Bank’s ability to balance inflation control with growth support will be critical. Fiscal reforms to improve subsidy targeting and infrastructure investments could further stabilize food prices.
Nigeria’s November 2025 food inflation reading of 13.12% YoY marks a significant improvement from recent highs. This easing reflects a combination of improved domestic supply, currency stabilization, and moderated global commodity prices. However, structural challenges in agricultural productivity and fiscal constraints remain. The Central Bank’s cautious monetary stance and government’s fiscal priorities will shape inflation dynamics in the near term.
Financial markets have responded positively, with NGN appreciation and lower bond yields signaling improved inflation expectations. Yet, the risk of external shocks and domestic disruptions means vigilance is warranted. A balanced approach to policy and structural reforms will be essential to sustain gains and protect consumer welfare.
Key Markets Likely to React to Food Inflation YoY
Food inflation in Nigeria directly impacts consumer spending, monetary policy, and currency valuation. Markets sensitive to inflation data include equities in consumer staples, fixed income instruments, and the foreign exchange market. Additionally, commodities linked to food production and imports respond to inflation trends.
- MTN – A major telecom with exposure to consumer spending trends in Nigeria.
- USDNGN – The USD/NGN currency pair reacts to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- BUA – A conglomerate with significant agricultural and food processing interests.
- BTCEUR – Bitcoin’s EUR pair, reflecting risk sentiment shifts tied to inflation uncertainty.
- EURNGN – Euro/NGN pair, sensitive to regional trade and inflation dynamics.
Insight: Food Inflation vs. USDNGN Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, spikes in Nigeria’s food inflation have closely correlated with NGN depreciation against the USD. For example, the 2023 inflation surge coincided with a 15% NGN decline. The November 2025 easing in food inflation aligns with a 3% NGN appreciation, underscoring the currency’s role in imported food costs. This relationship highlights the importance of exchange rate stability in managing food inflation pressures.
FAQ
- What is the current Food Inflation YoY rate in Nigeria?
- The latest reading for November 2025 is 13.12%, down from 16.87% in October.
- How does food inflation impact Nigeria’s economy?
- Food inflation affects consumer purchasing power, monetary policy decisions, and overall economic stability due to food’s large CPI weight.
- What are the main risks to food inflation going forward?
- Risks include global commodity price shocks, domestic security issues, fiscal constraints, and currency volatility.
Takeaway: Nigeria’s food inflation is easing but remains elevated. Sustained policy support and structural reforms are crucial to maintain this positive momentum.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 food inflation rate of 13.12% YoY represents a sharp decline from October’s 16.87% and is well below the 12-month average of 19.50%. This downward trajectory follows a peak of 22.74% in August, reflecting a reversal of the inflation surge seen mid-year.
Month-on-month, food inflation dropped by 3.75 percentage points, the largest single-month decline in 2025. This suggests that supply-side improvements and currency stabilization are materially impacting price dynamics.