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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NigeriaNigeria Food Inflation YoY climbed to 19.59% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Nigeria Food Inflation YoY climbed to 19.59% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.02% from August's 19.57% reading. The reading matched the 20.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 15.43%. Over the past 3 months, Food Inflation YoY averaged 19.94%, vs 16.36% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 47th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
19.59
Actual
20
Consensus
19.57
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.56 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 20.27
Actual: 19.59
Error: +0.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Food Inflation YoY (Nigeria) was reported at 19.59% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 20% by 0.41%. The reading rose from the previous value of 19.57%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.85%, ranging from 8.89% to 20.31% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 19.82%, up from the prior three at 15.05%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.96%) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.93%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Food Inflation YoY has averaged 24.74%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.57%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Food Inflation YoY - NG
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About Food Inflation YoY — Nigeria
DEFINITION
Food Inflation YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of food items over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall trend of food prices and can help businesses and consumers anticipate potential changes in their food expenses. This indicator is commonly used by economists and policymakers to monitor the impact of food prices on inflation and to make informed decisions regarding monetary and fiscal policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 19.59 %, consensus 20 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 19.57 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 19.57 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.66) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - NG Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:45 | NG | Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI | 56.4 | 57.2 | 57.00 | Low | |