Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY: January 2026 Data Shows First Slowdown in Seven Months
The latest data from Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics shows a modest deceleration in annual inflation for January 2026. The headline rate stands at 15.10%, slightly below December's 15.15% and well off the August 2025 peak of 21.88%. This report examines the drivers, market response, and forward scenarios for Africa's largest economy.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: +0.22pp
- Transport: +0.08pp
- Utilities: +0.04pp
- Clothing: -0.03pp
Policy pulse
Inflation at 15.10% remains well above the Central Bank of Nigeria's 6–9% target band. The gap has narrowed since August 2025, when inflation reached 21.88%.
Market lens
Naira-denominated assets saw a mild rally on the inflation print. Investors interpreted the deceleration as a tentative sign of stabilization, though persistent price pressures in food and transport kept risk appetite in check. The yield on 1-year government bills edged lower, while equities posted modest gains.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: 15.10%
- December 2025: 15.15%
- November 2025: 16.05%
- October 2025: 18.02%
- September 2025: 20.12%
- August 2025: 21.88%
MoM and YoY trends
The January 2026 reading marks a 0.05 percentage point decrease from December. Compared to January 2025, inflation is up by 1.8 percentage points, reflecting ongoing cost pressures despite recent easing.
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and cross-verified with Sigmanomics[1]. The headline rate measures year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, with food, transport, and utilities as key components.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25%): Inflation continues to slow, reaching 13–14% by mid-2026 if food supply stabilizes and FX volatility abates.
- Base case (60%): Inflation hovers between 14.5–16% through Q2, as structural pressures persist but major shocks subside.
- Bearish (15%): Renewed currency weakness or supply disruptions push inflation back above 16% in coming months.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include further naira depreciation and energy price spikes. Downside risks stem from improved harvests and tighter monetary policy. Market participants will watch for sustained moderation before re-rating local assets.
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Investor sentiment has turned cautiously constructive. The first inflation slowdown in seven months offers some relief, but the rate remains high by historical standards. Sustained improvement will be needed to anchor expectations and support broader economic recovery.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Nigeria's inflation data has ripple effects across asset classes. Currency traders focus on the naira's resilience, while equity and fixed income investors gauge the impact on yields and corporate margins. Crypto markets, though less directly linked, can reflect broader risk appetite shifts. The following symbols are actively monitored for their sensitivity to Nigeria's inflation trajectory:
- USDNGN — The USD/NGN pair typically reacts to inflation surprises, with higher readings pressuring the naira.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin's local trading volume often rises during periods of elevated inflation and currency volatility.
- AAPL — Apple’s supply chain and sales in emerging markets can be indirectly affected by inflation-driven demand shifts.
| Year | Inflation Rate YoY (%) | USDNGN Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 13.2 | Gradual depreciation |
| 2022 | 15.6 | Accelerated depreciation |
| 2024 | 18.8 | Sharp depreciation |
| 2026 (Jan) | 15.1 | Stabilizing |
FAQ: Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY: January 2026 Data Shows First Slowdown in Seven Months
- What is Nigeria's latest annual inflation rate?
- Nigeria's annual inflation rate for January 2026 is 15.10%, down from 15.15% in December 2025.
- How does the January 2026 inflation rate compare to recent months?
- January's reading marks the first slowdown in seven months, with inflation falling from a peak of 21.88% in August 2025.
- What are the main drivers of Nigeria's inflation rate?
- Food prices, transport costs, and utilities are the primary contributors to Nigeria's current inflation dynamics.
Nigeria's inflation rate has eased, but remains a central challenge for policymakers and markets alike.
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY, 2025–2026.
- National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria), Consumer Price Index reports, 2025–2026.
January's 15.10% inflation rate is down from December's 15.15% and below the 6-month average of 17.94%. The last time inflation was this low was in December 2025, at 14.45%. Since peaking at 21.88% in August, the rate has fallen by 6.78 percentage points.
Monthly momentum has shifted: inflation rose for six straight months before this modest pullback. The 12-month trend remains elevated, but the pace of increase has slowed sharply since late 2025.