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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NetherlandsNetherlands GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 1.2% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased April 2026
Netherlands GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 1.2% in January 2026, released April 2026, down 0.6% from December's 1.8% reading. The reading missed the 1.3% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.79%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 17 months.
Latest Release
1.2
Actual
1.3
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 1.85
Actual: 1.8
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Netherlands) was reported at 1.2% in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.77%, ranging from 1.5% to 2.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, up from the prior three at 1.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.86%). In March readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.3%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 18) and Consumer Confidence (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - NL
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Netherlands
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.2 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.