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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NorwayNorway GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 1.7% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Norway GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 1.7% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.3% from December's 2.0% reading. The reading missed the 2.4% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.89%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
1.7
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.4
Actual: 1.7
Error: +0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/NOK | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish NOK | → View |
| EUR/NOK | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NOK | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Norway) was reported at 1.7% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.4% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2%, up from the prior three at -0.93%. In May readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/NOK (Bullish NOK). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/NOK, negatively correlated (Bullish NOK). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18) and Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Norway
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.7 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 2.2 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/NOK (Bullish NOK, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.