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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
NorwayNorway Interest Rate Decision held to 4.25% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Norway Interest Rate Decision held to 4.25% in August 2026. The reading matched the 4.25% consensus. Interest Rate Decision is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
4.25
Actual
4.25
Consensus
4.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.25
Actual: 4.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/NOK | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Norway) was reported at 4.25% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.08%, ranging from 4% to 4.25% across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.17%, up from the prior three at 4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - NO
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About Interest Rate Decision — Norway
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.25 %, consensus 4.25 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.25 %. Before that (May 2026): 4.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bearish FTSE 100, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NO Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | NO | Balance of Trade | 100.4 | 84.3 | 95.1 | 97.75 | Low |