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New Zealand Balance of Trade climbed to 0.7 in March 2026, released April 2026, up 1.06 from February's -0.37 reading. The print exceeded the 0.18 consensus by 0.52. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -0.24, vs -0.85 in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 9 months.
across last 12 releases
Mar 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The April 2026 reading rose from the previous value of -0.37. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.59. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/JPY (Bullish NZD) and positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD).
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Thursday, May 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:30 | Business NZ PMI | 50.5 | 52.8 | 50.5 | 50.55 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | Food Inflation YoY | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.67 | Low | |
| Sunday, May 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 22:30 | Composite NZ PCI | 48.8 | 46.8 | 46.80 | Low | ||
| 22:30 | Services NZ PSI | 46 | 45 | 45.00 | Low | ||