Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade fell to 0.02B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade fell to 0.02B in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.56B from May's 0.58B reading. The reading missed the 0.25B consensus by 0.23B. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 1.36B, vs -0.01B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 56th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.02
Actual
0.25
Consensus
0.58
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.47
Actual: 0.02
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (New Zealand) was reported at 0.02 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.25 billion by 0.23 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.58 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.26 billion, ranging from -1.54 billion to 1.92 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.91 billion, up from the prior three at -0.24 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.95 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.19 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 0.29 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - NZ
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.02 M, consensus 0.25 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.8 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.92 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |