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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Balance of Trade fell to -1.97B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
New Zealand Balance of Trade fell to -1.97B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.44B from August's -1.54B reading. The reading missed the -0.78B consensus by 1.2B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.3B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1.65B, vs 0.91B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 23 months.
Latest Release
-1.971
Actual
-0.775
Consensus
-1.536
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -1.11
Actual: -1.97
Error: +0.86
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (New Zealand) was reported at -1.97 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.78 billion by 1.20 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.54 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.45 billion, ranging from -1.97 billion to 1.92 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.76 billion, down from the prior three at 0.91 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.96 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -1.81 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.67 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Nov 3) and Unemployment Rate (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - NZ
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About Balance of Trade — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -1.971 M, consensus -0.775 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -1.349 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -1.95 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 52.5 | 51.9 | 51.5 | 52.00 | Medium |
| 21:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 96.2 | 97.6 | 97.4 | 96.80 | Low |