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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Export Prices QoQ climbed to 5.3% in Q4 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
New Zealand Export Prices QoQ climbed to 5.3% in Q4 2025, released March 2026, up 6.9% from September's -1.6% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 4.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.07%. Export Prices QoQ is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 5.3
Error: -4.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices QoQ (New Zealand) was reported at 3.5% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.03%, up from the prior three at 1.9%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Export Prices QoQ has averaged 2.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Sep 15) and Current Account (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Export Prices QoQ - NZ
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About Export Prices QoQ — New Zealand
DEFINITION
Export Prices QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country over a period of three months. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global economic conditions on its trade. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the health of a country's economy and its international trade relationships. A positive QoQ growth in export prices indicates a strong demand for a country's exports, while a negative growth may signal a decline in demand or increased competition.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -2.7 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 5.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 1.60 | Low |
| 22:45 | NZ | Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.7 | -0.80 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:35 | NZ | 3-Month Bill Auction | 2.902 | 2.878 | 2.809 | 2.86 | Low |
| 21:00 | NZ | Westpac Consumer Confidence | 80.4 | 82.3 | 76.05 | Low | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -2.57 | -2.56 | Medium | |
| 22:45 | NZ | Current Account | -1.01 | -7.5 | -7.49 | Medium | |