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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 1.5% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
New Zealand Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 1.5% in January 2026, released June 2026. The print exceeded the 1.1% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.04%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
1.5
Actual
1.1
Consensus
1.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 1.1
Actual: 1.5
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 1.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.1% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.37%, up from the prior three at -0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - NZ
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product YoY for June 2026 matched the previous 1.500000% and exceeded the 1.100000% estimate. The economy maintained steady growth compared to March 2026's 1.300000%, indicating continued expansion. Market focus remains on upcoming monetary policy decisions amid stable GDP momentum. Updated 6/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.5 %, consensus 1.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.3 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Sunday, August 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZ | Building Permits MoM | -4 | -2.3 | -2.30 | Low | |