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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.3% in October 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
New Zealand Gross Domestic Product YoY climbed to 1.3% in October 2025, released March 2026, up 0.2% from September's 1.1% reading. The reading missed the 1.7% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.28%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.7
Consensus
1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 1.7
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 1.3% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 16) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - NZ
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
New Zealand's Gross Domestic Product YoY rose 1.3% in February 2026, matching December's pace and surpassing last March's -1.1% contraction. This steady growth marks a clear shift from negative territory seen throughout 2025, confirming a moderate recovery. Market reaction was muted as investors await further data to assess the sustainability of this expansion. Updated 3/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 1.3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): -0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.