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Data from Stats NZ. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Inflation Rate YoY held to 3.1% in January 2026
Stats NZMonthlyReleased April 2026
New Zealand Inflation Rate YoY held to 3.1% in January 2026, released April 2026. The print came in hotter than the 2.9% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 18 months.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
2.9
Consensus
3.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (New Zealand) was reported at 3.1% in April 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.9% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, up from the prior three at 2.57%. In October readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 16) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Inflation Rate YoY - NZ
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About Inflation Rate YoY — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2025): 3 %. Before that (Jan 2025): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.