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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
New ZealandNew Zealand Unemployment Rate fell to 5.3% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
New Zealand Unemployment Rate fell to 5.3% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from December's 5.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.56%. Unemployment Rate is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
5.4
Consensus
5.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 5.3
Actual: 5.4
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (New Zealand) was reported at 5.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through February 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.3%, up from the prior three at 5%. In February readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Change QoQ (Aug 4) and Business NZ PMI (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - NZ
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About Unemployment Rate — New Zealand
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 5.3 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 5.4 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 5.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - NZ Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | NZ | ANZ Business Confidence | 56.1 | 36.6 | 36 | 46.05 | Medium |
| 22:00 | NZ | ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence | 99.3 | 91.3 | 90.5 | 94.90 | Low |