Unemployment Rate - NZ Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
New Zealand Unemployment Rate
5.3
Actual
5.3
Consensus
5.2
Previous
New Zealand’s Unemployment Rate matched expectations at 5.30%, rising from 5.20% in August 2025 and signaling a continued labor market softening. This 0.10 percentage point increase reflects emerging slack after a steady climb since early 2024, indicating a shift toward contraction in employment conditions. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may pause or slow rate hikes as easing labor demand tempers inflation pressures. Updated 11/5/25
Unemployment Rate - NZ
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New Zealand Unemployment Rate Rises to 5.30% in November 2025: A Data-Driven Macro Analysis
The latest unemployment rate for New Zealand, released on November 4, 2025, shows a rise to 5.30%, up from 5.20% in August 2025. This marks a continuation of a gradual upward trend since early 2024, reflecting evolving labor market dynamics amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report contextualizes the current reading against historical trends, explores underlying drivers, and assesses implications for monetary policy, fiscal stance, and financial markets.
The New Zealand unemployment rate has increased to 5.30% in November 2025, marking the highest level since February 2025. This rise follows a steady climb from a low of 3.60% in August 2023. The labor market softening coincides with tighter monetary policy and external headwinds, including global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties. The uptick signals emerging slack in the labor market, which may temper wage growth and inflation pressures in the near term.
Drivers this month
Service sector layoffs amid slowing domestic demand.
Manufacturing employment contraction due to export challenges.
Seasonal adjustments reflecting end of tourism peak.
Policy pulse
The 5.30% unemployment rate sits above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) estimated NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) of approximately 4.50%, suggesting some easing of labor market tightness. This may reduce immediate pressure on the RBNZ to continue aggressive rate hikes, though inflation remains a key concern.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The NZD/USD currency pair dipped 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting market concerns over slower economic momentum. Short-term NZ government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, signaling a modest easing in monetary policy expectations.
The unemployment rate’s rise to 5.30% contrasts with core macroeconomic indicators that show mixed signals. GDP growth slowed to an annualized 1.20% in Q3 2025, down from 2.10% in Q2. Inflation remains elevated at 4.10% YoY, though it has moderated from a peak of 5.60% in mid-2024. Wage growth has decelerated to 3.50% YoY, down from 5.00% a year ago, consistent with loosening labor market conditions.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBNZ has maintained a cautious stance, holding the official cash rate at 5.50% since September 2025 after a series of hikes totaling 250 basis points since early 2024. Financial conditions have tightened, with mortgage rates averaging 6.80%, dampening household spending and housing market activity.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government running a deficit of 2.30% of GDP in FY2025. Increased spending on infrastructure and social welfare aims to support employment and cushion vulnerable sectors. However, rising debt servicing costs amid higher interest rates pose medium-term risks.
The November 2025 unemployment rate of 5.30% exceeds both the previous month’s 5.20% and the 12-month average of 4.70%. This steady increase from 3.60% in August 2023 highlights a clear trend of labor market softening over the past 15 months.
Comparing quarterly data, the unemployment rate rose by 0.20 percentage points from August to November 2025, while the 12-month rolling average climbed by 0.60 points. This reflects a shift from historically tight labor conditions to a more balanced, if cautious, employment environment.
Drivers this month
Higher job separations in retail and hospitality sectors.
Reduced hiring intentions reported in business surveys.
Increased labor force participation, diluting employment ratios.
Policy pulse
The unemployment rise suggests the RBNZ’s monetary tightening is beginning to impact labor demand. While inflation remains above target, the labor market slack may allow a pause or slower pace in future rate hikes.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: NZ 2-year government bond yields declined by 7 basis points, reflecting expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy path. The NZD weakened against the USD and AUD, signaling investor caution.
This chart confirms a clear upward trajectory in unemployment, reversing the tight labor market conditions of 2023. The trend signals easing wage pressures and potential moderation in inflation, influencing monetary policy decisions in the coming quarters.
Looking ahead, the unemployment rate trajectory will hinge on several factors, including global economic conditions, domestic demand, and policy responses. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Global trade recovers, boosting exports and manufacturing jobs.
Consumer confidence rebounds, supporting hiring in services.
Unemployment falls back below 5% by mid-2026.
Base scenario (55% probability)
Gradual economic growth with moderate inflation pressures.
Unemployment stabilizes around 5.20%-5.40% through 2026.
Monetary policy remains cautious but accommodative.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
External shocks, such as geopolitical tensions or commodity price shocks, worsen.
New Zealand’s labor market faces structural challenges including aging demographics and skill mismatches. These factors may keep the natural rate of unemployment elevated relative to pre-pandemic lows. Automation and digital transformation also reshape employment patterns, requiring policy adaptation.
The November 2025 unemployment rate of 5.30% signals a softening labor market after a prolonged period of tightness. This shift aligns with tighter monetary policy and external headwinds, suggesting a cooling phase for the New Zealand economy. While risks remain balanced, policymakers should monitor inflation dynamics closely to calibrate future interventions. Financial markets have reacted with modest caution, pricing in a slower pace of rate hikes. Structural labor market changes will continue to influence the medium-term outlook.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
The New Zealand unemployment rate is a critical barometer for economic health and monetary policy expectations. Key markets that typically respond include currency pairs, government bonds, and equity indices sensitive to domestic growth and interest rate outlooks. Below are five tradable symbols with strong historical correlations to New Zealand’s labor market dynamics:
NZDUSD – The primary currency pair reflecting New Zealand’s economic sentiment and interest rate differentials.
NZX50 – New Zealand’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to domestic economic conditions and labor market health.
AUDNZD – Reflects relative economic performance between Australia and New Zealand, influenced by labor market shifts.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reacts to risk sentiment shifts triggered by macroeconomic data.
NZBNZ – New Zealand government bond futures, directly impacted by unemployment-driven monetary policy expectations.
Insight: Unemployment Rate vs. NZDUSD Since 2020
Year
Average Unemployment Rate (%)
NZDUSD Annual Average
2020
4.50
0.65
2021
4.00
0.70
2022
3.80
0.68
2023
3.70
0.67
2024
4.50
0.64
2025 (YTD)
5.00
0.62
This table illustrates a clear inverse relationship: as unemployment rises, the NZDUSD tends to weaken, reflecting concerns over economic growth and monetary policy easing. The 2025 uptick in unemployment correlates with the NZD’s depreciation, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to labor market shifts.
FAQs
What does the latest New Zealand unemployment rate indicate?
The 5.30% rate indicates a softening labor market, signaling easing wage pressures and potential moderation in inflation.
How does the unemployment rate affect New Zealand’s monetary policy?
Rising unemployment may reduce pressure on the RBNZ to hike rates aggressively, potentially leading to a pause or slower tightening.
Why is the unemployment rate important for investors?
It influences currency strength, bond yields, and equity market sentiment by signaling economic growth and inflation trends.
Takeaway: New Zealand’s rising unemployment rate to 5.30% marks a pivotal shift toward a more balanced labor market, influencing monetary policy and financial market dynamics in the near term.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
NZX50 – New Zealand’s main stock index sensitive to domestic economic shifts.
AUDNZD – Cross reflecting relative economic performance between NZ and Australia.
BTCUSD – Crypto asset reacting to global risk sentiment changes.
NZBNZ – NZ government bond futures linked to monetary policy expectations.
Sources:
Sigmanomics database, New Zealand Unemployment Rate releases, November 2025.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statements, 2024-2025.
New Zealand Treasury Fiscal Updates, 2025.
Statistics New Zealand, Labor Market Reports, 2023-2025.
Economic Calendar - NZ Events
Sunday, December 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.25
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.9
46.2
46.8
46.38
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
49.5
46
46.5
46.52
Low
Thursday, December 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
6.3
0.9
1.2
1.50
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.5
45.8
46.2
45.87
Medium
Wednesday, December 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.3
-1.1
-0.5
-1.17
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.7
0.4
0.40
Low
Tuesday, December 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-1.6
-2.8
2.2
-0.55
Low
Monday, December 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.4
2.1
1.8
-2.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
0.7
5.2
1.4
1.38
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-1.7
3.1
-0.6
-1.47
Low
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.2
2.4
1.7
1.50
Low
Thursday, November 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
99.8
91.2
94
92.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
64.9
65.7
66
70.58
Medium
Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.25
4.75
4.25
4.21
Medium
Sunday, November 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.5
-3.6
2
-0.28
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-0.1
-1.2
0.6
0.58
High
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.31
7.06
7.2
7.20
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-1.544
-2.154
-2
-2.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.77
4.91
5.1
4.92
Low
Sunday, November 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.15
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.9
1.4
1
1.32
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.2
46.4
47.3
46.88
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
46
45.7
47
47.02
Low
Thursday, November 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
46.9
47.5
47.17
Medium
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
1.2
1.5
1.35
Low
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
0.9
3.6
3.3
3.60
Low
Monday, November 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.1
-5.6
-4.8
-5.47
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.1
2
2
2.08
Low
Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.4
3.6
3.4
3.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.2
71.7
71.5
71.45
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.6
0.9
0.7
0.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.8
4.6
5
4.97
High
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.5
0.4
-0.4
-0.40
High
Thursday, October 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
2.6
-5.2
-1.6
-1.80
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
65.7
60.9
55
59.58
Medium
Thursday, October 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
91.2
95.1
98
96.85
Low
Monday, October 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
7.12
7.15
7.1
7.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.108
-2.306
-1
-1.45
Medium
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.01
4.85
6.1
5.92
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.65
Medium
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
2.2
3.3
2.2
2.12
Low
Sunday, October 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0
0.2
0.1
0.10
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-5.6
-2.9
0.3
-0.37
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.4
45.8
48.9
48.48
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
45.7
45.7
47.6
47.62
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
1.2
0.4
1.7
1.55
Low
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.6
3.8
4.5
4.80
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
46.9
45.8
46.5
46.17
Medium
Wednesday, October 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
4.75
5.25
4.75
4.71
Medium
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-5.3
26.4
-6.8
-7.00
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-1
-44
-34
-39.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
89.1
88.7
90.5
89.50
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
60.9
50.6
43
47.58
Medium
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
95.1
92.2
101
99.85
Low
Sunday, September 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.17
7.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
4.97
6.09
5.6
5.42
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-2.203
-0.963
-0.155
-0.60
Medium
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.2
0.1
-0.4
-0.37
Medium
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.5
0.5
-0.5
-0.55
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.83
-4.36
-4
-4.11
Medium
21:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
90.8
82.2
85
87.00
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
45.8
44.4
47
46.67
Medium
Wednesday, September 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
0.2
-0.1
-1.1
-1.10
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-2.9
-4.9
-1.1
-1.77
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.4
0.6
1
0.85
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
3.8
2
2.30
Low
Monday, September 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3
-2
3
0.25
Low
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.1
-5.1
0.5
-0.37
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
2.1
5.1
28
24.12
Low
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
5.2
-0.3
2.8
2.78
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
26.2
-17
-1.9
-2.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
92.2
87.9
88.5
87.35
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
50.6
27.1
20
24.58
Medium
Thursday, August 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-3.6
-2.4
1.7
-0.58
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.2
0.4
-1
-1.02
High
Monday, August 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
7.11
5.45
6
6.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.963
0.585
0.331
-0.12
Medium
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.15
6.04
5.5
5.33
Low
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
44.6
40.7
40.9
40.92
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.3
40.9
41.3
40.88
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
1.4
0.7
0.5
0.82
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
44
41.1
42.5
42.17
Medium
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.1
-0.7
-0.2
-0.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.6
-0.3
-0.5
-0.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-4.9
-5.3
-5.97
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.25
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, August 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
3.8
12.1
9.1
9.40
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2
2.3
1.9
1.98
Low
Tuesday, August 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.7
71.5
71.3
71.25
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.52
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.20
High
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.7
4.67
High
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
27.1
6.1
4.5
9.08
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-13.8
-1.9
1.2
1.00
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
87.9
83.2
83.2
82.05
Low
Sunday, July 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.699
0.054
0.294
-0.16
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.47
6.94
7.5
7.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.17
7
6.5
6.33
Low
Tuesday, July 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
3.3
4
3.5
3.42
Low
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
40.9
44.7
43.8
43.38
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
40.2
43
42.8
42.82
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.6
-1.2
0.5
0.50
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-4.9
-1.6
-2
-2.67
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
41.1
47.2
46.8
46.47
Medium
Wednesday, July 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.45
Low
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
12.1
1.7
2
2.30
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.7
-2.1
-1.3
-1.50
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
88.7
90.2
92
91.00
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-44
-25
-7
-12.67
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
6.1
11.2
10.2
14.78
Medium
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
83
84.9
84.2
83.05
Low
Monday, June 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
0
-0.8
0.4
-0.18
Low
Sunday, June 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.95
6.32
6.2
6.20
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
7.16
6.31
6.5
6.33
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.204
-0.003
0.155
-0.30
Medium
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.15
High
22:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0
0.03
Medium
Tuesday, June 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Current Account
-4.36
-7.84
-4.55
-4.66
Low
Sunday, June 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
43
46.6
47.5
47.52
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
44.7
47.3
48
47.58
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.2
0.8
0.7
0.55
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.2
48.9
49.2
48.87
Medium
Wednesday, June 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-1.6
-3.8
-3
-3.67
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
1.7
27.9
48
48.30
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-2.2
-3.4
4.5
1.75
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-0.3
-4.2
1.5
1.48
Low
22:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
-5.1
3.8
1.6
0.73
Low
22:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
5.1
-7.8
3.1
-0.78
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-0.2
1.5
1.30
Low
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
11.2
14.9
15
19.58
Medium
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.42
6.38
6.8
6.63
Low
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.091
0.476
0.7
0.25
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
6.32
5.9
6.1
6.10
Low
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
84.9
82.1
80
78.85
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-2.4
-4.1
1.5
-0.78
High
22:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
0.5
-1.9
-0.3
-0.32
High
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.6
-0.6
1.8
1.22
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.75
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.92
Low
22:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.70
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
27.9
35
40
40.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.4
-0.7
1
1.00
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3.8
-2.3
-3.2
-3.87
Low
03:00
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.3
2.5
2
2.08
Low
Sunday, May 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.8
0.7
1
0.85
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.1
47.2
49.1
49.12
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
47.6
46.6
48.7
48.28
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
48.9
47.1
48.5
48.17
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Low
22:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.82
Low
22:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
-0.2
0.4
0.3
0.30
High
22:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.5
71.9
71.9
71.85
Low
22:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4.3
4
4.2
4.17
High
01:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
14.9
22.9
24
28.58
Medium
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
82.1
86.4
89
87.85
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
0.588
-0.315
-0.505
-0.96
Medium
22:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.1
7.3
7.30
Low
22:45
NZ
Exports
6.5
5.79
6.5
6.33
Low
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
1.4
2.1
2.1
1.52
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.55
Medium
22:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4
4.7
4.3
4.22
Low
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
35
21.7
23
23.30
Low
22:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
47.5
52.6
53.4
53.42
Low
22:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
50.9
52.6
52.18
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-3
2.5
2.8
2.13
Low
22:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
0.7
2.1
1.8
1.65
Low
22:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-0.7
-2
0.9
0.90
Low
22:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.1
49.3
50
49.67
Medium
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-25
-2
5
-0.67
Low
22:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
90.2
91.4
91.5
90.50
Low
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
14.9
-8.6
4.1
3.90
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
22.9
34.7
34
38.58
Medium
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
86.4
94.5
97
95.85
Low
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.11
5.9
5.5
5.50
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.89
4.82
4.7
4.53
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.218
-1.089
-0.8
-1.25
Medium
02:10
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
2.2
0
0.8
0.22
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.13
Medium
21:45
NZ
GDP Growth Rate YoY
-0.3
-0.6
0.1
0.05
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Current Account
-7.837
-11.465
-7.8
-7.91
Medium
20:00
NZ
Westpac Consumer Confidence
93.2
88.9
91
93.00
Low
Sunday, March 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
51.3
50.2
51.1
50.68
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
53
52.2
52.9
52.92
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
49.3
47.5
48.1
47.77
Medium
Wednesday, March 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
21.7
14.8
20
20.30
Low
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
2.1
4
3.4
3.25
Low
Monday, March 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
2.5
1.6
1.1
0.43
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-1.8
2
-0.4
-0.40
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Manufacturing Sales YoY
-3.4
-6.7
-1.6
-4.35
Low
Sunday, March 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Terms of Trade QoQ
-7.8
-0.6
-0.2
-4.08
Low
21:45
NZ
Export Prices QoQ
-4.2
-1.4
-0.4
-0.42
Low
21:45
NZ
Import Prices QoQ
3.8
-0.9
-0.2
-1.07
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-8.8
3.6
1.8
1.60
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
94.5
93.6
96
94.85
Low
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
34.7
36.6
38
42.58
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
NZ
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.46
Medium
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales QoQ
-1.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.42
High
21:45
NZ
Retail Sales YoY
-4.1
-3.4
-3.6
-5.88
High
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
-0.3
4.3
4.5
3.92
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Imports
5.91
6.22
5.9
5.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Exports
4.93
5.85
5.1
4.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.976
-0.368
-0.2
-0.65
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
PPI Output QoQ
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.65
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Input QoQ
0.9
1.2
0.4
0.72
Low
21:45
NZ
PPI Output
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.60
Low
14:40
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
0.5
4.2
-1
0.68
Low
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
50
46.9
47.7
47.28
Low
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
52.1
48.8
49.6
49.62
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
47.3
43.1
45.3
44.97
Medium
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
14.8
30.4
41.5
41.80
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4
4.8
4.4
4.25
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
1.7
-1.7
0.9
0.90
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
1.6
-0.6
-1
-1.67
Low
02:30
NZ
Business Inflation Expectations
2.5
2.76
2.6
2.68
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Participation Rate
71.9
72
72
71.95
Low
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.80
Low
21:45
NZ
Employment Change QoQ
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.30
High
21:45
NZ
Unemployment Rate
4
3.9
4.2
4.17
High
21:45
NZ
Labour Costs Index YoY
3.9
4.1
3.8
3.82
Low
15:00
NZ
Global Dairy Trade Price Index
4.2
2.3
-1
0.68
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
3.7
-10.6
6.2
6.00
Low
21:00
NZ
ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
93.6
93.1
94
92.85
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
NZ
ANZ Business Confidence
36.6
33.2
30
34.58
Medium
Sunday, January 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Exports
5.94
5.95
6.1
5.92
Low
21:45
NZ
Imports
6.26
7.2
6.7
6.70
Low
21:45
NZ
Balance of Trade
-0.323
-1.25
-0.6
-1.05
Medium
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:00
NZ
Credit Card Spending YoY
4.3
3.3
3.6
3.02
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
CPI
1259
1253
1259
1259.00
High
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate YoY
4.7
5.6
4.7
4.62
Low
21:45
NZ
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.5
1.8
0.5
0.45
Medium
Monday, January 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
NZ
Services NZ PSI
48.8
51.1
51.5
51.52
Low
21:30
NZ
Composite NZ PCI
46.8
49
49.6
49.18
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Visitor Arrivals YoY
30.4
39.8
25
25.30
Low
21:30
NZ
Business NZ PMI
43.1
46.7
47.8
47.47
Medium
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Food Inflation YoY
4.8
6
5.7
5.55
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending MoM
-2
1.7
0.3
0.30
Low
21:45
NZ
Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY
-0.6
2.1
2.5
1.83
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
NZ
NZIER Business Confidence
-2
-52
-40
-45.67
Low
21:00
NZ
NZIER Capacity Utilization
91.4
87.3
87.5
86.50
Low
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:45
NZ
Building Permits MoM
-10.6
8.5
2
1.80
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Unemployment Rate in NZ Climbs to 5.30 Percent November 2025 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Edges Higher in Latest Report The unemployment rate in NZ, which measures the share of the labor force without work but actively seeking employment, rose to 5.30% in November 2025, up from 5.20% in August. Fast facts: the rate increased by 0.10 percentage points since the previous release, the year-over-year change shows a rise from 4.80%, and the data was published on November 4, 2025. This steady climb reflects a softening labor market amid tighter monetary policy and global uncertainties. According to economist Sarah Thompson at Morgan Stanley, "The rise in NZ’s unemployment rate signals emerging slack that could ease wage pressures and allow the Reserve Bank to slow its rate hikes." Market reaction was cautious, with the NZD slipping slightly as investors weighed the implications for growth and inflation. Overall, the data suggests the labor market is adjusting to a more moderate pace after a period of tight conditions.
The November 2025 unemployment rate of 5.30% exceeds both the previous month’s 5.20% and the 12-month average of 4.70%. This steady increase from 3.60% in August 2023 highlights a clear trend of labor market softening over the past 15 months.
Comparing quarterly data, the unemployment rate rose by 0.20 percentage points from August to November 2025, while the 12-month rolling average climbed by 0.60 points. This reflects a shift from historically tight labor conditions to a more balanced, if cautious, employment environment.