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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Budget Balance climbed to 31.4B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Philippines Budget Balance climbed to 31.4B in April 2026, released May 2026, up 381.1B from March's -349.7B reading. The print came in cooler than the 200B consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -160.16B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -160.24B, vs -157.6B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
31.4
Actual
200
Consensus
-349.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±126.04 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 243.05
Actual: 31.4
Error: +211.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/PHP | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Philippines) was reported at 31.40 billion in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 200.00 billion by 168.60 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -349.70 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -100.14 billion, ranging from -313.20 billion to 165.40 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -38.80 billion, up from the prior three at -131.50 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 141.31 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 148.74 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged 47.13 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/PHP (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 126.04 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Budget Balance - PH
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About Budget Balance — Philippines
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 31.4 B, consensus 200 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 31.4 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -349.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.