Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Budget Balance climbed to -106.3B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Philippines Budget Balance climbed to -106.3B in July 2026, released August 2026, up 158B from June's -264.3B reading. The print came in hotter than the -220B consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -151.42B. Over the past 3 months, Budget Balance averaged -189.7B, vs -136.29B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-106.3
Actual
-220
Consensus
-264.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±101.9 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -215.7
Actual: -106.3
Error: -109.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/PHP | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Philippines) was reported at -106.30 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -220.00 billion by 113.70 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -264.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -116.48 billion, ranging from -313.20 billion to 165.40 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -189.70 billion, down from the prior three at -38.80 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 143.19 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 150.73 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Budget Balance has averaged -51.33 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/PHP, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 101.90 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Budget Balance - PH
Loading chart data...
About Budget Balance — Philippines
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -106.3 B, consensus -220 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -264.3 B. Before that (May 2026): -198.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP