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Philippines Business Confidence fell to -35.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 11.5% from March's -24.3% reading. The print came in cooler than the -27.0% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Business Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 50 months.
across last 9 releases
May 2026
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Business Confidence (Philippines) was reported at -35.8% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -27% by 8.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of -24.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
The trailing three releases averaged 5.7%, down from the prior three at 36.2%.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.6%.
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -35.8 %, consensus -27 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -24.3 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 29.7 %.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:30 | Interest Rate Decision | 4.5 | 4.75 | 4.75 | Medium | ||