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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Business Confidence fell to -20.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Philippines Business Confidence fell to -20.3% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 20.3% from June's 0.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.0% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 14.78%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged -12.6%, vs -30.05% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-20.3
Actual
2
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 18.2
Actual: -20.3
Error: +38.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Philippines) was reported at -20.3% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2% by 22.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -4.73%, ranging from -35.8% to 29.7% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -15.17%, down from the prior three at 5.7%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 17.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/PHP (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Business Confidence - PH
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About Business Confidence — Philippines
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -20.3 %, consensus 2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/PHP (Bearish USD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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