The Philippines’ Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at -9.80 in September 2025 signals a cautious but improving consumer mood. This figure is significantly better than the -14.00 recorded in August and the -15.60 average for the same month last year. The index remains negative, indicating consumers still harbor concerns, but the upward trend suggests easing fears around inflation, employment, and economic growth.

Drivers this month

• Improved labor market conditions contributed 1.20 points to the index.
• Lower inflation expectations added 0.80 points.
• Rising remittances and stable peso exchange rates supported sentiment.

Policy pulse

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has maintained a cautious monetary stance, keeping policy rates steady at 5.50%, balancing inflation control with growth support. The current CCI reading aligns with BSP’s inflation target range of 2-4%, suggesting consumer expectations are stabilizing.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PHP/USD currency pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved confidence in the peso. The 2-year government bond yield edged down 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premiums.

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator for household spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the Philippines’ GDP. The recent uptick coincides with key macroeconomic data showing moderate GDP growth of 5.10% YoY in Q2 2025, down slightly from 5.30% in Q1 but above the 4.80% average of the past five years. Inflation has moderated to 3.90% YoY in August, within the BSP’s target band, easing cost-of-living pressures.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The BSP’s steady policy rate and ample liquidity have kept borrowing costs manageable. Credit growth remains robust at 12% YoY, supporting consumer loans and business investment. The peso’s relative stability against the US dollar has helped contain imported inflation risks.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

The government’s fiscal stance remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit projected at 3.50% of GDP, slightly above the 3.20% target. Increased infrastructure spending and social programs aim to sustain demand and improve income distribution, which supports consumer sentiment.

Drivers this month

• Employment outlook improved by 1.50 points.
• Inflation expectations declined by -0.70 points, boosting purchasing power perceptions.
• Consumer durable goods demand rose modestly, adding 0.50 points.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Philippine equities, represented by the red PCOR, gained 0.70% intraday, reflecting optimism. The peso strengthened against the USD, while bond yields softened, indicating reduced risk aversion.

Looking ahead, consumer confidence in the Philippines faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline scenario projects a gradual improvement to -7.00 by year-end, supported by stable inflation, steady remittance inflows, and ongoing fiscal stimulus. This scenario carries a 55% probability.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Global demand surges, boosting exports and employment.
• Inflation falls below 3%, increasing real incomes.
• Monetary easing triggers credit expansion and consumer spending.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• External shocks from geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains.
• Inflation spikes above 5%, eroding purchasing power.
• Fiscal deficits widen, forcing austerity measures.

Policy pulse

The BSP is expected to maintain a cautious stance, ready to adjust rates if inflation deviates from target. Fiscal policy may tighten if debt sustainability concerns rise, potentially dampening consumer sentiment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Philippine peso (PHP) is likely to remain sensitive to CCI prints, with the USDPHP pair showing inverse correlation to confidence shifts. Bond markets, including the MBT 2-year notes, will track inflation expectations closely.

The September 2025 Consumer Confidence Index for the Philippines signals a tentative recovery in household sentiment after a challenging period marked by inflationary pressures and global uncertainties. While the index remains negative, the upward momentum bodes well for domestic demand and economic growth. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to sustain this recovery. External risks, including geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility, remain key downside threats. Investors and analysts should monitor confidence trends alongside inflation and employment data to gauge the trajectory of the Philippine economy.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence in the Philippines is a bellwether for several key markets. The Philippine Stock Exchange, represented by PCOR, often rallies on improved sentiment due to expected higher consumer spending. The peso, tracked via the USDPHP currency pair, typically strengthens as confidence rises. Government bonds such as MBT reflect inflation and growth expectations tied to consumer mood. Additionally, the cryptocurrency BTCUSD can react to risk sentiment shifts, while the EURUSD pair may move indirectly with global risk appetite influenced by emerging market confidence.

FAQs

What is the current state of Philippine Consumer Confidence?

The index improved to -9.80 in September 2025, signaling cautious optimism after previous declines.

How does Consumer Confidence affect the Philippine economy?

It influences household spending, which drives about 70% of GDP, impacting growth and inflation.

What are the main risks to Consumer Confidence going forward?

Key risks include inflation spikes, geopolitical shocks, and fiscal tightening that could dampen sentiment.

Takeaway: The Philippine Consumer Confidence rebound in September 2025 suggests a stabilizing economy, but vigilance is needed amid persistent external and domestic risks.