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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.3% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Philippines GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.3% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 0.5% from March's 2.8% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 60 months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Philippines) was reported at 2.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.6%, down from the prior three at 5.27%. In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - PH
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Philippines
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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