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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Philippines GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 2.8% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.2% from December's 3.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 3.5% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 57 months.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
3.5
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 4.4
Actual: 3
Error: +1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Philippines) was reported at 2.8% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.63%, down from the prior three at 5.57%. In January readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 5) and Unemployment Rate (Aug 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - PH
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Philippines
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PH Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | PH | Balance of Trade | -4.939 | -6.103 | -4.4 | -4.67 | Low |
| 01:00 | PH | Producer Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PH | Business Confidence | 0 | -25.2 | -45 | -22.50 | Low |