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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.8% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Philippines Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.8% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.2% from December's 3.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 3.5% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
3.5
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 3
Error: +0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Philippines) was reported at 2.8% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PH
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Philippines' Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.800000% for May 2026, missing the 3.500000% estimate. This represents a slowdown from April 2026's 3.000000%, indicating a deceleration in economic growth. Market focus will remain on upcoming policy moves as the central bank assesses this softer momentum. Updated 5/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3 %. Before that (Apr 2025): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.