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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PhilippinesPhilippines Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Philippines Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 2.3% in April 2026, released August 2026, down 0.5% from March's 2.8% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Gross Domestic Product YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.8
Actual: 2.3
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Philippines) was reported at 2.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - PH
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Philippines
DEFINITION
The Philippines' Gross Domestic Product YoY came in at 2.300000% for August 2026, missing the 2.800000% estimate. This marks a decline from May 2026's 2.800000%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Market focus will remain on upcoming policy moves amid this deceleration. Updated 8/7/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 2.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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