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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Business Confidence climbed to -4.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Poland Business Confidence climbed to -4.1% in May 2026, up 0.3% from April's -4.4% reading. The reading matched the -4.0% consensus. Business Confidence has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged -4.8%, vs -7.4% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-4.1
Actual
-4
Consensus
-4.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.25 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -3.1
Actual: -4.1
Error: +1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Poland) was reported at -4.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - PL
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About Business Confidence — Poland
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -4.1 %, consensus -4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -4.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -5.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.