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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Business Confidence climbed to -5.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Poland Business Confidence climbed to -5.3% in July 2026, up 0.7% from June's -6.0% reading. The reading missed the -5.0% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -6.06%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged -5.05%, vs -4.27% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-5.3
Actual
-5
Consensus
-6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.25 percentage points
across last 7 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -5.65
Actual: -5.3
Error: -0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Poland) was reported at -5.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -5% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.19%, ranging from -11.6% to -3.2% across 7 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -5.13%, up from the prior three at -6.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with FTSE 100, positively correlated (Bullish FTSE 100). Over the last 7 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - PL
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About Business Confidence — Poland
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -5.3 %, consensus -5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -6 %. Before that (May 2026): -4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.1 | 47.5 | 47.60 | Low | |