Poland’s business confidence index (BCI) at -7.90 in November 2025 marks a slight improvement from October’s -8.00, continuing a subdued but stable trend. Over the past 12 months, the average BCI hovered near -8.50, indicating persistent cautiousness among firms. This reading remains below the neutral zero mark, reflecting ongoing concerns about demand and cost pressures.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing sector optimism edged up by 0.30 points, supported by steady export orders.
• Retail confidence declined marginally amid inflationary pressures on consumer spending.
• Construction sector sentiment remained flat, weighed down by rising input costs.

Policy pulse

The current BCI level aligns with the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) inflation target zone, suggesting that monetary tightening measures are beginning to temper overheating risks without severely dampening business sentiment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PLN appreciated 0.15% against the EUR within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief at the less negative-than-expected confidence figure. Polish 2-year government bond yields declined by 3 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for interpreting the BCI. Poland’s GDP growth slowed to an estimated 2.10% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.50% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand and external headwinds. Inflation remains elevated at 6.30% YoY but shows signs of peaking. Unemployment held steady at 5.20%, near historic lows.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The NBP has maintained its key interest rate at 6.75% since September 2025, prioritizing inflation control. Financial conditions tightened moderately, with credit growth slowing to 4.50% YoY from 5.20% earlier in the year. The zloty’s recent strength supports imported inflation moderation.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains expansionary but cautious. The 2025 budget deficit is projected at 3.80% of GDP, slightly above the EU’s recommended ceiling. Increased infrastructure spending and social transfers aim to support growth, but rising debt service costs pose medium-term risks.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions continue to weigh on business sentiment. Energy price volatility and trade uncertainties with key partners like Germany and Russia remain critical downside risks.

Historical comparisons show that the current BCI remains below the post-pandemic recovery peak of 3.50 in mid-2023 but above the trough of -15.70 recorded in early 2024 during the energy crisis. This range suggests that while challenges persist, firms are adapting to the new economic environment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: PLN/USD strengthened by 0.12% post-release, while the WIG20 index rose 0.40%, reflecting improved investor sentiment toward Polish equities.

Looking ahead, Poland’s business confidence trajectory will hinge on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) envisions gradual improvement to -5.00 by mid-2026, supported by easing inflation and stable monetary policy. The bullish scenario (20%) assumes faster inflation decline and stronger EU demand, pushing BCI into positive territory (2.00). Conversely, the bearish scenario (20%) involves renewed geopolitical shocks and energy price spikes, driving confidence below -12.00.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Poland’s economy is undergoing structural shifts toward higher value-added manufacturing and digital services. These trends support medium-term productivity gains but require continued investment and labor market reforms. Demographic challenges and EU regulatory changes will also shape business sentiment over the next decade.

Policy pulse

The NBP’s cautious stance on interest rates and the government’s targeted fiscal measures are expected to maintain a delicate balance between inflation control and growth support. Close monitoring of external risks will be critical.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Forward-looking bond yields (5-year) have stabilized near 4.10%, reflecting market confidence in policy continuity and manageable inflation risks.

Poland’s November 2025 business confidence reading of -7.90 signals a cautiously optimistic outlook amid persistent macroeconomic challenges. The slight improvement from October and relative stability compared to the past year suggest that firms are navigating inflation and geopolitical headwinds with resilience. However, risks from external shocks and fiscal pressures remain. Policymakers must continue to balance inflation containment with growth support to sustain this fragile recovery.

Key Markets Likely to React to Business Confidence

Business confidence in Poland closely influences several key markets. The WIG20 index tracks domestic corporate sentiment and investment flows. The EURPLN currency pair reflects cross-border trade and capital movement sensitivity to confidence shifts. The USDPLN pair captures broader risk sentiment and monetary policy expectations. On the crypto side, BTCUSD often reacts to risk-on/risk-off dynamics influenced by economic confidence. Lastly, the PKN stock, a major energy sector player, is sensitive to geopolitical and energy price risks impacting business sentiment.

FAQs

What is the current business confidence level in Poland?

The latest reading is -7.90 as of November 2025, indicating cautious but stable sentiment.

How does business confidence impact Poland’s economy?

Business confidence influences investment, hiring, and production decisions, affecting GDP growth and employment.

What are the main risks to Poland’s business confidence?

Key risks include inflation volatility, geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks, and fiscal sustainability concerns.

Key takeaway: Poland’s business confidence is stabilizing amid inflation and geopolitical pressures, but vigilance is needed to sustain recovery.