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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Business Confidence fell to -6.6% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Poland Business Confidence fell to -6.6% in October 2026, down 0.8% from September's -5.8% reading. The reading matched the -6.3% consensus. Business Confidence has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged -5.45%, vs -5.13% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-6.6
Actual
-6.3
Consensus
-5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.85 percentage points
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -6.38
Actual: -6.6
Error: +0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| DAX | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Poland) was reported at -6.6% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6.3% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of -5.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.08%, ranging from -11.6% to -3.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -5.83%, down from the prior three at -5.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, positively correlated (Bullish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.85%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Nov 4) and GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Nov 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Business Confidence - PL
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About Business Confidence — Poland
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -6.6 %, consensus -6.3 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -5.8 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with FTSE 100 (Bullish FTSE 100, r=0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.85 | Medium |
| 08:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 48.5 | 49.25 | Low | |