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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.1% from April's 3.0% reading. The reading matched expectations. Core Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.85%, vs 2.6% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
3.1
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.06 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 3
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Poland) was reported at 3.1% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3%, ranging from 2.5% to 3.4% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.73%, down from the prior three at 2.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.29%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.06%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - PL
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.