Poland’s core inflation rate year-over-year (YoY) for November 2025 registered at 3.00%, down from 3.20% in October, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This figure matches consensus estimates and reflects a steady decline from the 4.00% peak recorded in January 2025. The geographic scope covers Poland’s national economy, with temporal focus on monthly releases throughout 2025.

Drivers this month

• Shelter costs contributed 0.15 percentage points (pp), a slight decrease from 0.18 pp last month.
• Used car prices declined by -0.04 pp, continuing a downward trend.
• Core goods inflation softened amid stable supply chains and subdued demand.

Policy pulse

The 3.00% core inflation rate remains above the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target of 2.50%, but the downward trend supports the current monetary stance. The central bank’s key interest rate stands at 7.00%, unchanged since September 2025, reflecting a cautious approach to balancing inflation control and growth support.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The PLN/USD currency pair appreciated 0.30% within the first hour post-release, signaling market confidence in Poland’s inflation trajectory. Short-term government bond yields (2-year) edged down by 5 basis points, while breakeven inflation swaps reflected a mild easing in inflation expectations.

Core inflation is a critical macroeconomic indicator, stripping out volatile food and energy prices to reveal underlying price trends. Poland’s core inflation rate has steadily declined from 4.00% in January 2025 to 3.00% in November, reflecting easing demand pressures and improved supply conditions.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The NBP’s monetary tightening cycle, initiated in late 2024, has contributed to cooling inflation. The policy rate has remained at 7.00% since September, with financial conditions tightening moderately. Credit growth slowed to 4.50% YoY in October, down from 6.00% earlier in the year, indicating restrained borrowing.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal discipline remains intact, with the government maintaining a budget deficit target of 2.80% of GDP for 2025. Public spending focused on infrastructure and social programs has been balanced by revenue growth from corporate taxes, supporting macro stability without overheating demand.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Poland faces ongoing risks from regional geopolitical tensions and global commodity price volatility. However, recent stabilization in energy prices and improved EU trade relations have mitigated inflationary pressures. The war in Eastern Europe continues to pose downside risks to supply chains and investor sentiment.

Drivers this month

• Services inflation slowed to 2.80% YoY from 3.10% in October.
• Core goods inflation declined to 3.20% YoY from 3.50% last month.
• Energy-excluded components remained stable, supporting the core measure.

Policy pulse

The current core inflation rate remains slightly above the NBP’s 2.50% target, but the trajectory supports a pause in further rate hikes. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency, with inflation expected to converge toward target by mid-2026.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: Polish government bond yields (2-year) fell by 5 basis points, reflecting market optimism. The PLN strengthened against the EUR by 0.40%, indicating confidence in Poland’s inflation outlook and monetary policy credibility.

Looking ahead, Poland’s core inflation is expected to continue moderating, supported by stable fiscal policy and cautious monetary stance. However, risks from global energy prices and geopolitical tensions could disrupt this path.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Core inflation falls below 2.50% by Q3 2026.
• Strong global growth supports exports and investment.
• Geopolitical risks ease, stabilizing commodity prices.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Core inflation stabilizes around 2.70%-3.00% through 2026.
• Monetary policy remains on hold with gradual easing in H2 2026.
• Fiscal policy remains prudent, supporting balanced growth.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflationary pressures re-emerge, pushing core inflation above 3.50%.
• Energy price shocks or renewed geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains.
• NBP forced to resume rate hikes, tightening financial conditions.

Overall, the outlook balances optimism on inflation control with caution over external risks. Policymakers and investors should monitor energy markets and geopolitical developments closely.

Poland’s core inflation rate YoY at 3.00% in November 2025 signals a positive trend toward price stability. The data from the Sigmanomics database confirm a steady decline from early 2025 highs, supported by effective monetary policy and stable fiscal management. While external shocks remain a concern, current financial market reactions suggest confidence in Poland’s macroeconomic resilience.

Investors should watch key indicators such as credit growth, government bond yields, and currency movements for early signs of inflationary shifts. The balance of risks implies that the National Bank of Poland will maintain a cautious but flexible approach in the coming months.

Key Markets Likely to React to Core Inflation Rate YoY

Poland’s core inflation data typically influence several key markets, including currency pairs, government bonds, and equity indices. Movements in these markets reflect investor sentiment on inflation trends and monetary policy expectations.

• PLNUSD: The Polish zloty’s exchange rate against the US dollar is sensitive to inflation data, impacting import costs and capital flows.
• WIG20: Poland’s benchmark stock index reacts to inflation-driven monetary policy shifts affecting corporate earnings.
• EURPLN: The euro-zloty pair reflects cross-border trade and investment flows influenced by inflation and interest rate differentials.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, with price movements correlating to inflation expectations globally.
• CDR: CD Projekt, a major Polish stock, is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions impacting consumer spending and investment.

FAQs

What is the significance of Poland’s core inflation rate YoY?

The core inflation rate excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends crucial for monetary policy decisions.

How does the core inflation rate affect Poland’s monetary policy?

Core inflation guides the National Bank of Poland’s interest rate decisions, balancing inflation control with economic growth objectives.

What external factors influence Poland’s core inflation?

Global energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain disruptions are key external drivers impacting Poland’s core inflation dynamics.

Takeaway: Poland’s core inflation rate at 3.00% YoY signals progress toward price stability, but vigilance is needed amid external uncertainties.