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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Current Account climbed to -1,071M in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Poland Current Account climbed to -1,071M in May 2026, released July 2026, up 470M from April's -1,541M reading. The print exceeded the -1,674M consensus by 603M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -674.92M. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged -896M, vs -511.67M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1071
Actual
-1674
Consensus
-1541
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,333.5 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -1,872
Actual: -1,071
Error: -801
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Poland) was reported at -1,071.00 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1,674.00 million by 603.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -1,541.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -585.45 million, ranging from -3,087.00 million to 1,924.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -954.33 million, down from the prior three at -335.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,356.67 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 1,024.90 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -958.00 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,333.50 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Aug 13) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Aug 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Current Account - PL
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About Current Account — Poland
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -1,071 M, consensus -1,674 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1,558 M. Before that (Mar 2026): -234 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 | PL | CPI YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | CPI MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | PL | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 46.1 | 47.5 | 47.60 | Low | |