Poland’s November 2025 Current Account: A Narrowing Deficit Amid Shifting Economic Tides
The latest Current Account data for Poland shows a significant improvement, with the deficit narrowing to -725 million PLN in November 2025, well above expectations and a sharp rebound from October’s -3.09 billion PLN. This signals easing external pressures despite ongoing geopolitical risks and tighter monetary conditions. However, persistent structural trade imbalances and volatile energy prices keep risks elevated. Forward-looking scenarios suggest cautious optimism, contingent on global demand and domestic policy calibration.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 Current Account balance for Poland, released on November 13, reveals a deficit of -725 million PLN. This figure is a marked improvement from October’s -3.09 billion PLN and significantly better than the consensus estimate of -1.42 billion PLN, according to the Sigmanomics database. Over the past 12 months, Poland’s current account has fluctuated widely, reflecting volatile trade balances and external shocks.
Drivers this month
- Improved export performance in machinery and automotive sectors.
- Reduced energy import costs amid lower global gas prices.
- Moderation in domestic consumption dampening import demand.
Policy pulse
The current account deficit remains within manageable limits relative to GDP, easing pressure on the zloty and supporting the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) recent monetary tightening stance. The deficit’s contraction aligns with the central bank’s inflation-targeting framework, which benefits from a more balanced external position.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The PLN strengthened by 0.30% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting market relief at the narrower deficit. Polish 2-year government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, signaling reduced risk premia.
Poland’s current account deficit of -725 million PLN in November 2025 contrasts sharply with the previous month’s -3.09 billion PLN and the year-ago figure of -803 million PLN in February 2025. The 12-month average deficit stands near -1.10 billion PLN, underscoring the recent volatility. Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for this shift.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The NBP has maintained a restrictive monetary policy stance, with the reference rate at 7.25%, aiming to curb inflation that remains above the 2.50% target. Tighter financial conditions have cooled domestic demand, reducing import growth and contributing to the current account improvement.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts have restrained public spending growth, indirectly supporting external balances by limiting import-intensive government projects. The budget deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, down from 3.50% a year earlier.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Energy price volatility, especially in natural gas, has been a key driver of current account swings. Recent easing of tensions in Eastern Europe and improved supply routes have helped reduce import costs. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties remain a downside risk.
Drivers this month
- Export growth in machinery (4.20% MoM) and automotive (3.80% MoM) sectors.
- Energy import bill down 12% MoM due to lower LNG prices.
- Import volume contraction of 1.50% MoM amid subdued domestic demand.
Policy pulse
The current account improvement supports the NBP’s cautious approach to monetary policy normalization. The narrower deficit reduces external vulnerabilities and may allow for a slower pace of rate hikes in early 2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: PLN/USD strengthened by 0.25% post-release, while 2-year Polish government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting improved investor confidence.
This chart highlights a clear trend of Poland’s current account moving toward equilibrium after a volatile year. The sharp November improvement suggests external balances are stabilizing, reducing currency and financial market volatility risks.
Looking ahead, Poland’s current account trajectory depends on global demand, energy prices, and domestic policy responses. The Sigmanomics database and recent trends suggest three scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
- Robust export growth driven by EU recovery and tech sector expansion.
- Stable or declining energy prices reduce import costs further.
- Current account moves into surplus territory by mid-2026.
Base Scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate export growth balanced by steady import demand.
- Energy prices remain volatile but contained.
- Current account deficit stabilizes around -500 million to -1 billion PLN.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Global slowdown weakens exports, especially in automotive and machinery.
- Energy price spikes increase import costs sharply.
- Current account deficit widens beyond -2 billion PLN, pressuring the PLN.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Poland’s persistent trade deficits in energy and raw materials highlight structural challenges. Diversification of energy sources and higher value-added exports remain critical for sustainable external balance improvements.
The November 2025 current account print signals a welcome reprieve for Poland’s external sector. The sharp deficit narrowing reflects a combination of improved export dynamics, lower energy import costs, and restrained domestic demand. While this reduces near-term external vulnerabilities, structural trade imbalances and geopolitical uncertainties warrant vigilance. Policymakers should leverage this momentum to deepen export diversification and energy security. Financial markets have responded positively, but the path ahead requires balancing inflation control with growth support.
Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
Poland’s current account data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to external balances and macroeconomic stability. The following tradable symbols have shown historical correlation with Poland’s external sector dynamics:
- EURPLN: The euro-to-zloty rate reacts strongly to current account shifts, reflecting trade and capital flow changes.
- PKN: Poland’s largest oil refiner, sensitive to energy import costs impacting the current account.
- USDCAD: Proxy for commodity price shifts that influence Poland’s energy import bill.
- BTCUSD: Reflects risk sentiment and capital flows that can affect emerging market currencies like PLN.
- CDR: A major Polish tech exporter, whose performance aligns with export-driven current account improvements.
Insight: Current Account vs. EURPLN Since 2020
Since 2020, Poland’s current account balance and the EURPLN exchange rate have exhibited a strong inverse correlation. Periods of widening deficits often coincide with EURPLN depreciation, reflecting weaker external balances. The November 2025 current account improvement coincides with a 0.30% PLN appreciation against the euro, underscoring this relationship. This dynamic highlights the importance of external balances in shaping currency market sentiment and monetary policy considerations.
FAQs
- What does Poland’s current account deficit indicate?
- The current account deficit measures the gap between Poland’s exports and imports of goods, services, and income. A narrowing deficit suggests improved external balance and less reliance on foreign capital.
- How does the current account affect the Polish zloty?
- A smaller current account deficit tends to support the zloty by reducing external vulnerabilities and improving investor confidence in Poland’s economy.
- What are the risks to Poland’s current account outlook?
- Risks include global demand shocks, energy price volatility, and geopolitical tensions that could widen the deficit and pressure the currency.
Takeaway: Poland’s November 2025 current account improvement signals easing external pressures, supporting a more stable macroeconomic outlook amid ongoing global uncertainties.
The current account deficit narrowed sharply to -725 million PLN in November 2025, compared to -3.09 billion PLN in October and a 12-month average deficit of approximately -1.10 billion PLN. This reversal marks the largest month-on-month improvement in the past year.
Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows that Poland’s current account has oscillated between surpluses and deficits over the last 10 months, with a notable surplus of 651 million PLN in August 2025 and deep deficits in May and July. The November reading signals a return to a more balanced external position.