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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland Current Account fell to -2,419M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Poland Current Account fell to -2,419M in July 2026, released September 2026, down 203M from June's -2,216M reading. The reading matched the -2,341M consensus. Current Account has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Current Account averaged -1,643.5M, vs -927.33M in the prior 3-month window. Current Account is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-2419
Actual
-2341
Consensus
-2216
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1,287.38 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -2,553.25
Actual: -2,419
Error: -134.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/PLN | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Current Account (Poland) was reported at -2,419.00 million in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2,341.00 million by 78.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -2,216.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -944.64 million, ranging from -3,087.00 million to 1,924.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1,902.00 million, down from the prior three at -213.00 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,438.33 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 1,025.51 million). In September readings over the past 3 years, Current Account has averaged -1,738.67 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with Euro STOXX 50, negatively correlated (Bearish Euro STOXX 50). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1,287.38 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Current Account - PL
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About Current Account — Poland
DEFINITION
The Current Account is a financial indicator that measures a country's trade balance, including the value of goods and services exported and imported, as well as income received and payments made to other countries. It provides insight into a nation's economic health and its ability to pay for imports and service its debt. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus, while a negative balance indicates a deficit. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact a country's currency value and overall economic stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -2,419 M, consensus -2,341 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -2,216 M. Before that (May 2026): -1,071 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | PL | Balance of Trade | -1843 | -1469 | -1200 | -1521.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | PL | Current Account | -2419 | -2216 | -2341 | -2380.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | PL | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |