Poland’s Current Account Deficit Widens Sharply in January
Poland’s current account balance posted a deficit of -1.70B PLN in January 2026, according to the National Bank of Poland. This marks a significant reversal from December’s surplus and signals renewed external pressures on the economy.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Goods trade balance: -2.12B PLN
- Primary income: -1.05B PLN
- Services surplus: +1.23B PLN
Policy pulse
The current account deficit of -1.70B PLN in January stands well below the National Bank of Poland’s comfort zone, which typically favors a balanced or modestly positive external position.
Market lens
PLN weakened and Warsaw equities slipped after the data release. The wider deficit stoked concerns about external financing and currency stability, prompting a risk-off move in local assets. Investors are watching for further signals from the central bank on potential responses to the deteriorating external balance.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- Exports: 12.8B PLN (down 7% MoM)
- Imports: 14.9B PLN (up 3% MoM)
- Net secondary income: +0.26B PLN
Policy pulse
January’s deficit is the largest since July 2025, when the gap reached -1.74B PLN. The reading is 1.2B PLN below the 12-month average, highlighting a notable shift in Poland’s external position.
Market lens
Bond yields rose modestly as investors priced in higher risk premiums. The data reinforced concerns about the sustainability of Poland’s external accounts, especially if import growth continues to outpace exports.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Deficit narrows to below -0.5B PLN in coming months (25%)
- Base: Deficit remains between -1.0B and -2.0B PLN (60%)
- Bearish: Deficit widens beyond -2.5B PLN (15%)
Policy pulse
With the deficit now at its widest in half a year, policymakers face renewed scrutiny over trade competitiveness and capital flows. The central bank has not signaled any immediate intervention.
Market lens
FX strategists flagged increased hedging demand for PLN assets. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming trade and income data, as well as any fiscal measures to support the external balance.Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
- Goods trade deficit widened by 1.1B PLN MoM
- Primary income outflows rose 0.6B PLN MoM
- Services surplus provided partial offset
Policy pulse
The January deficit underscores the need for vigilance as Poland’s external position deteriorates. Sustained deficits at this scale could challenge macroeconomic stability if left unchecked.
Market lens
Investors remain cautious on PLN-denominated assets. The data has prompted a reassessment of risk, with attention turning to structural reforms and export competitiveness.Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account
Poland’s current account data has immediate implications for currency, equity, and fixed income markets. The sharp deficit reversal in January 2026 is likely to influence trading in the zloty, Polish stocks, and regional assets. Below are key tradable symbols from Sigmanomics’ market pages, each with a direct correlation to the current account trend.
- PLN: The Polish zloty typically weakens on wider current account deficits due to increased external financing needs.
- WIG20: The main Warsaw equity index often reacts to current account swings, reflecting investor sentiment on macro stability.
- BTCPLN: Bitcoin priced in zloty can see increased volatility when PLN comes under pressure from external imbalances.
| Year | Current Account (PLN M) | PLN/USD Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | +9,800 | Stable |
| 2021 | +7,200 | Appreciating |
| 2022 | -4,900 | Depreciating |
| 2023 | +2,100 | Stable |
| 2024 | -1,600 | Depreciating |
| 2025 | -2,800 | Depreciating |
| Jan 2026 | -1,698 | Depreciating |
Periods of widening current account deficits have consistently coincided with zloty depreciation since 2022, reinforcing the indicator’s market relevance.
FAQ
A: The current account posted a deficit of -1.70B PLN in January 2026, the widest gap in six months.
Q: What are the main drivers behind the January 2026 current account result?
A: The deficit was driven by a wider goods trade gap and increased primary income outflows, partially offset by a services surplus.
Q: How does the current account trend affect Polish markets?
A: A wider deficit typically pressures the zloty and local equities, as seen after the January 2026 release.
Poland’s current account deficit in January 2026 signals renewed external risks and market caution.
Updated 2/13/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- National Bank of Poland, Balance of Payments Statistics, January 2026 release.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data Portal, Poland Current Account History.
- Bloomberg, Poland Macroeconomic Dashboard, accessed 2/13/26.
The January reading is also 1.2B PLN weaker than the same month a year ago, when the deficit stood at -0.46B PLN. Compared to November 2025’s -0.73B PLN, the gap has more than doubled in just two months.