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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.5% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 3.5% in January 2026, released June 2026, down 0.6% from December's 4.1% reading. The reading matched the 3.4% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.3%. The reading is in the 72nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.4
Consensus
4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.3
Actual: 3.5
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | INDEX | Bearish DAX | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Bearish FTSE 100 | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Bearish Euro STOXX 50 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Poland) was reported at 3.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.65%, ranging from 3.4% to 4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.63%, down from the prior three at 3.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.22%). In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Jun 24) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - PL
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.66) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.