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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
PolandPoland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.9% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased August 2026
Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 3.9% in April 2026, released August 2026, up 0.4% from March's 3.5% reading. The reading matched the 3.8% consensus. GDP Growth Rate YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.9
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.8
Actual: 3.9
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Euro STOXX 50 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| FTSE 100 | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Poland) was reported at 3.9% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.76%, ranging from 3.4% to 4% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.73%, down from the prior three at 3.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In August readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 3.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with DAX (Bearish DAX). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - PL
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Poland
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.8 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with DAX (Bearish DAX, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - PL Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | PL | Balance of Trade | -1843 | -1469 | -1200 | -1521.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | PL | Current Account | -2419 | -2216 | -2341 | -2380.00 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| 07:30 | PL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | PL | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |